The United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organization’s latest forecast for world cereal production in 2012 has been revised downward slightly— 0.4% to 2.286 million tons—since the previous update in September. The latest adjustment reflects a smaller maize crop in central and southeastern parts of Europe, where yields are turning out lower than earlier expectations following prolonged dry conditions.
At the current forecast level, world cereal production in 2012 would be 2.6% down from the previous year’s record crop, but close to the second largest in 2008. The overall decrease comprises a 5.2% reduction in wheat production, and a 2.3% reduction for coarse grains, while the global rice crop is seen to remain virtually unchanged.
Severe droughts this year in the United States and across a have been the main cause of the reduced wheat and coarse grains crops. However, the very early indications for wheat crops in 2013 are encouraging, with winter wheat planting in the northern hemisphere already well advanced under generally favorable weather conditions.
World cereal utilization in 2012/13 marketing season is forecast at 2.314 million tons, down marginally from the previous season, but 2% below the 10-year trend. Global wheat utilization is likely to reach 687 million tons, pointing to a 1% decline from the previous season, mostly on reduced feed use after the previous season’s exceptionally elevated use of wheat for animal feed. Total utilization of coarse grains is forecast at 1.154 million tons in 2012/13, also down slightly from the previous season, with most of the reduction reflecting a decline in maize utilization to 866 million tons, down nearly 1% from the revised estimate of 874 million tons in 2011/12. The decline in maize consumption reflects an anticipated contraction in industrial usage of maize, largely because of an anticipated drop of 10% (13 million tons) in the crop usage for production of biofuels in the United States. By contrast, world rice utilization is set to increase by 1.2% to 474 million tons, resulting in stable per caput food consumption.
The forecast for world cereal stocks at the close of crop seasons ending in 2013 now stands at 499 million tons, down 4 million tons from September and as much as 5% (28 million tons) from their opening level. This month’s downward revision reflects the worsening of the global production outlook. Compared with the previous season, the fall in world inventories would stem from lower wheat and coarse grain carryovers.
At the current forecast levels, the world cereal stock-to-use ratio is projected at 20.7%, which compares with 22.8% last season and with the low of 19.2% registered in 2007/08. Global wheat inventories are foreseen to reach 172 million tons, down 11% (21 million tons) from the previous season and almost 2 million tons less than in the September forecast.
The reduction in wheat inventories is likely to be most pronounced in Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, but stocks are also anticipated to end lower in mainland China, the European Union and the United States. As a result, the world wheat stock-to-use ratio is projected at 24.8%, down from 28.1% estimated in 2011/12, though still 2.9 percentage points above the all-time low of 21.9% in 2007/08.
World inventories of coarse grains are forecast to reach 162 million tons, 9% (16 million tons) less than in 2012 and 2.5 million tons below the September forecast. Most the decline from the previous season reflects shrinking maize supplies in the United States that may curb the country’s maize stock-to-use ratio to an all-time low of 7.3%. By contrast, given the expectation of another bumper rice crop, global rice inventories at the close of seasons in 2013 are expected to surge by 6% (9.3 million tons) to a record of 165 million tons. This would lift the rice stock-to-use ratio by 1.6 percentage points to a comfortable 34.5%, or 10 percentage points higher than the 24.5% registered in 2006/07.
