USDA data was deemed by traders as mostly bearish for corn and soybeans due to large stockpiles expected late this year and next year, especially for corn.Soybean and wheat futures were seeing mixed price action in late trading Friday. Soybeans were trading near steady, but wheat futures were following the corn market lower.
The U.S. government predicted a record corn harvest this year and said corn stocks will double by next year.
USDA predicted U.S. corn production at 14.1 billion bushels in 2013. That’s up nearly one-third from last year’s drought-plagued U.S. production. World corn stocks of 154.6 million metric tons next year were also seen as bearish.
USDA sees a record 2013 U.S. soybean crop of 3.39 billion bushels and a stronger re-building of stocks than expected. USDA's projection of higher-than-expected 2013-14 U.S. wheat ending stocks was bearish for that market.
Following are the 2012-13 world carryout numbers from USDA:
Corn: 125.43 million metric tons (MMIT), up from April’s projection of 125.29 MMT. USDA sees corn carryout of 154.63 MMT for 2013-14
Soybeans: 62.46 MMT; down from April’s number of 62.63 MMT. USDA sees soybean world stocks at 74.96 MMT for 2013-14.
Wheat: 180.17 MMT, down from April’s 182.26 MMT. USDA projects 186.38 MMT for 2013-14.
Buying interest in the U.S. grains was also limited Friday by the strong U.S. dollar against the other major currencies, making those grains (which are priced in U.S. dollar worldwide) more expensive on the world market.
Grain traders are quickly turning their attention back to weather patterns in the U.S. Cool weather is forecast for the Corn Belt in the coming days, and that is limiting the downside in corn and soybean futures prices due to concerns about planting delays.
