Corn futures traded lower for the second day in a row and once again the Sept/Dec edged lower in the early going but managed to find bull spreading support near the tail end of the session.
Traders continue to note that basis is on the defensive in the interior of the US and on the river which is seen as a negative force on the nearby contract but values continue to trade above delivery for the most part.
Soybeans traded sharply lower which offered pressure to peripheral agricultural commodity markets. Yields in the delta and southeast continue to come in "better than expected" and in some cases at record levels.
End user coverage will be active as basis levels creep lower which will limit the downside of the cash market. There will be a flurry of private crop production forecasts released this week for 2013/14 ahead of the USDA report on September 12th.
A private satellite firm estimated corn production at 13.33 billion bushels on an average yield of 151.6 bushels per acre.
This is down from their prior estimate of 13.406 billion and 152.4 bushels per acre. Another private advisory firm estimated the crop at 13.676 billion bushels with a yield of 153.4 bushels per acre.
The August USDA estimate called for a 154.4 bushel per acre yield with production at 13.676 billion bushels.
FC Stone is expected to be out later today with their updated production forecast. The trade is in large agreement that over the last 2 weeks, yields have been trimmed in some areas due to the extreme heat and lack of rainfall.
November Rice finished down 0.105 at 15.685, 0.115 off the high and equal to the low.
Soy Futures Closed Lower
November Soybeans finished down 34 1/4 at 1352 1/2, 34 3/4 off the high and 11 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 34 at 1351. This was 10 3/4 up from the low and 34 off the high.
December Soymeal closed down 16.2 at 422.7. This was 2.4 up from the low and 16.4 off the high.
December Soybean Oil finished down 0.26 at 43.93, 0.33 off the high and 0.28 up from the low.
Failure for the bulls to take out the September 14th contract high for November soybeans at 1409 3/4 over the last 2 weeks sparked some heavy technical selling today.
The overnight session saw similar action which filled the first gap on the chart but one more remains which technicians have their eyes on.
Fundamentally, the new crop outlook remains in question and slightly supportive with the broader market in large agreement that yields have likely turned lower from the August USDA estimate of 42.6 bushels per acre implying total production of 3.255 billion bushels.
Private crop production forecasts began hitting the market today ahead of the USDA report on September 12th. A private satellite firm estimated soybean production at 3.114 billion bushels on an average yield of 40.4 bushels per acre.
This is down from their prior estimate of 3.14 billion and 40.8 bushels per acre. Another private advisory firm estimated the crop at 2.98 billion bushels with a yield of 39 bushels per acre.
The final yield in 2012/13 was estimated at 39.6 bushels per acre with production at 3.015 billion bushels amid some of the worst drought conditions on record.
However, timely rainfall at the end of August last year helped to push yields higher in some areas while this year, a broad-based soaking across the Corn Belt has failed to develop.
Midday weather models suggested the northwestern portion of the Corn Belt could see significant and timely rainfall in the next 5 days but confidence remains low.
FC Stone is expected to be out later today with their updated production forecast. Harvest has started in the delta region but early bushels will be soaked up quickly given the hefty export book on for new crop and aggressive bids from processors in the east.
Wheat Futures Closed Lower
December Wheat finished down 1 at 646 1/4, 1 3/4 off the high and 6 1/4 up from the low. March Wheat closed up 1/4 at 659. This was 6 3/4 up from the low and 3/4 off the high.
Wheat futures traded slightly lower on the day, mostly in line with weaker corn and soybean markets. Corn trading lower as harvest moves forward and soybeans saw double digit losses on spillover pressure from the overnight session and weak technical signals.
The Minneapolis December made a new contract low following positive harvest and crop condition data that suggests total North American spring wheat supply should be rather healthy when taking into account the US harvest and the favorable outlook for Canada.
Traders note good yields from the US spring wheat crop but protein is slightly lower. Paris wheat futures traded down overnight, mostly due to their bearish production outlook and the weaker action in the overnight, US markets.
Traders in France noted that French soft wheat wasn't likely to be bought by Egypt in their tender released yesterday as Black Sea offers still hold the biggest bargain in the world market near $250 to $255 per tonne.
Egypt ended up buying 180,000 tonnes from Russia, Ukraine, and Romania which were the same origins in their last purchase.
Jordan released a soft milling wheat tender but made no purchase. World supplies remain robust which continues to offer a bearish tilt to the market long term.
A private analyst estimated world production at 701.84 million tonnes, up 3 million from their prior forecast and compared to the USDA estimate of 705.38 million.
December Oats closed down 2 at 328. This was 2 1/4 up from the low and 4 1/4 off the high.
Traders continue to note that basis is on the defensive in the interior of the US and on the river which is seen as a negative force on the nearby contract but values continue to trade above delivery for the most part.
Soybeans traded sharply lower which offered pressure to peripheral agricultural commodity markets. Yields in the delta and southeast continue to come in "better than expected" and in some cases at record levels.
End user coverage will be active as basis levels creep lower which will limit the downside of the cash market. There will be a flurry of private crop production forecasts released this week for 2013/14 ahead of the USDA report on September 12th.
A private satellite firm estimated corn production at 13.33 billion bushels on an average yield of 151.6 bushels per acre.
This is down from their prior estimate of 13.406 billion and 152.4 bushels per acre. Another private advisory firm estimated the crop at 13.676 billion bushels with a yield of 153.4 bushels per acre.
The August USDA estimate called for a 154.4 bushel per acre yield with production at 13.676 billion bushels.
FC Stone is expected to be out later today with their updated production forecast. The trade is in large agreement that over the last 2 weeks, yields have been trimmed in some areas due to the extreme heat and lack of rainfall.
November Rice finished down 0.105 at 15.685, 0.115 off the high and equal to the low.
Soy Futures Closed Lower
November Soybeans finished down 34 1/4 at 1352 1/2, 34 3/4 off the high and 11 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 34 at 1351. This was 10 3/4 up from the low and 34 off the high.
December Soymeal closed down 16.2 at 422.7. This was 2.4 up from the low and 16.4 off the high.
December Soybean Oil finished down 0.26 at 43.93, 0.33 off the high and 0.28 up from the low.
Failure for the bulls to take out the September 14th contract high for November soybeans at 1409 3/4 over the last 2 weeks sparked some heavy technical selling today.
The overnight session saw similar action which filled the first gap on the chart but one more remains which technicians have their eyes on.
Fundamentally, the new crop outlook remains in question and slightly supportive with the broader market in large agreement that yields have likely turned lower from the August USDA estimate of 42.6 bushels per acre implying total production of 3.255 billion bushels.
Private crop production forecasts began hitting the market today ahead of the USDA report on September 12th. A private satellite firm estimated soybean production at 3.114 billion bushels on an average yield of 40.4 bushels per acre.
This is down from their prior estimate of 3.14 billion and 40.8 bushels per acre. Another private advisory firm estimated the crop at 2.98 billion bushels with a yield of 39 bushels per acre.
The final yield in 2012/13 was estimated at 39.6 bushels per acre with production at 3.015 billion bushels amid some of the worst drought conditions on record.
However, timely rainfall at the end of August last year helped to push yields higher in some areas while this year, a broad-based soaking across the Corn Belt has failed to develop.
Midday weather models suggested the northwestern portion of the Corn Belt could see significant and timely rainfall in the next 5 days but confidence remains low.
FC Stone is expected to be out later today with their updated production forecast. Harvest has started in the delta region but early bushels will be soaked up quickly given the hefty export book on for new crop and aggressive bids from processors in the east.
Wheat Futures Closed Lower
December Wheat finished down 1 at 646 1/4, 1 3/4 off the high and 6 1/4 up from the low. March Wheat closed up 1/4 at 659. This was 6 3/4 up from the low and 3/4 off the high.
Wheat futures traded slightly lower on the day, mostly in line with weaker corn and soybean markets. Corn trading lower as harvest moves forward and soybeans saw double digit losses on spillover pressure from the overnight session and weak technical signals.
The Minneapolis December made a new contract low following positive harvest and crop condition data that suggests total North American spring wheat supply should be rather healthy when taking into account the US harvest and the favorable outlook for Canada.
Traders note good yields from the US spring wheat crop but protein is slightly lower. Paris wheat futures traded down overnight, mostly due to their bearish production outlook and the weaker action in the overnight, US markets.
Traders in France noted that French soft wheat wasn't likely to be bought by Egypt in their tender released yesterday as Black Sea offers still hold the biggest bargain in the world market near $250 to $255 per tonne.
Egypt ended up buying 180,000 tonnes from Russia, Ukraine, and Romania which were the same origins in their last purchase.
Jordan released a soft milling wheat tender but made no purchase. World supplies remain robust which continues to offer a bearish tilt to the market long term.
A private analyst estimated world production at 701.84 million tonnes, up 3 million from their prior forecast and compared to the USDA estimate of 705.38 million.
December Oats closed down 2 at 328. This was 2 1/4 up from the low and 4 1/4 off the high.
