Yields for this year's garlic season in California will be down. Because demand for garlic is relatively inelastic, prices will be high if imports can't make up the difference between normal supplies and this year's lower supplies.
“The drought is one reason for yields this year, but it's not the only reason,” said Sacha Fattahi of Global Farms Enterprises. “Some years you can get 20,000 pounds per acre, and this year some people are getting half of that, and not all of that is because of the drought.” Because there's less garlic to go around, prices are high. Fattahi noted that prices for this time of year are usually about $20.00 per case, but he's seen current prices around $40.00 per case.
“Garlic is one of the basic ingredients in food,” said Fattahi. “No matter where you're from, people use garlic to cook, so if the supply is short, then prices will be high.” A light season will also mean that importers will try to get as much garlic into the U.S. as possible, even sourcing product from countries that usually don't ship garlic to the United States.
“One of the countries that exports garlic to the U.S. is Mexico, but their yields have also been down. They can just satisfy their own consumption,” said Fattahi. “The value of the Euro is usually higher than the value of the dollar, so that's why Europe usually doesn't ship here. I don't recall any garlic from Europe here in the last 20 years, but this year we'll definitely see some European garlic.”
