Over the weekend, Iowa State University Extension climatologist and ag meteorologist Elwynn Taylor said though there's been a shift away from the La Nina period in the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index, that doesn't necessarily mean it's moving enough in the other direction to show El Nino's anywhere near taking the reins. That's bad news for the prospects of much significant soil moisture recharge between now and next spring, Taylor says.
"There is an unlikely chance of 2013 being an El Nino year, with its record of erasing drought conditions in the Midwest," Taylor said Saturday. "If weather patterns respond to neutral or to an early 2013 development of La Nina, it will be likely that U.S. corn yield will fall below the 30-year trend line for a 4th consecutive year.
"A failure to replenish subsoil moisture and restore stream and river flows would be a major factor in the probability of a below-trend crop in 2013."
