Foreign nations that previously relied on the US for corn are growing more of their own or buying from other producing countries, said Philip Abbott. He predicted the trend will continue even if market conditions improve and US corn production increases.
"The US has historically been a very important part of the international corn market," Abbott said. "Prior to the 2007-08 food crisis and spike in commodity prices, the US exported well over half the amount of corn that entered international markets. Since then, the high prices have caused the rest of the world to expand their production and become more self-sufficient."
US Department of Agriculture statistics bear that out. In the 2007-08 marketing year, the US exported 2.4 billion bushels of corn. The USDA estimates just 1.1 billion bushels of US corn will be exported in the 2012-13 marketing year.
What has happened to US corn exports, and why might the US not claim 50 percent of future world corn markets? There are a few reasons, Abbott said.
First, ethanol. The federal Renewable Fuel Standard mandates that gasoline sold in the US be blended with ethanol. This year, the law requires oil companies blend 13.2 billion gallons of ethanol with the gasoline they produce. Next year, the blending requirement increases to 13.8 billion gallons.
Corn is the primary feedstock of ethanol, and 5.5 billion bushels of US corn were used for that purpose in 2011-12.
"Roughly 40 percent of the corn that's produced in this country is used in ethanol, although some of it is later used as distillers grain for livestock feed," Abbott said. "That's up from about 10-12 percent five years ago. The amount of corn that makes up the increase is more than we export."
Because the law requires that ethanol be produced, there is less corn available for other non-ethanol users, including foreign buyers and US livestock producers. The high demand for corn, coupled with the partially regulated market, has pushed corn prices higher.
Secondly, the US has not kept up with many other nations that have significantly increased their corn acreage. Although US farmers have shifted acreage away from other crops and into corn, competing nations and customers have significantly increased their area planted.
"We haven't expanded overall planted area like the rest of the world. Our acreage is basically flat," Abbott said.
Since the late 1990s, South America has boosted crop acreage 53 percent. The nations that make up the former Soviet Union are growing crops on 24 percent more acres, with acreage up 13.4 percent in sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania. By contrast, crop acreage in the European Union is off four percent.
US corn exports were further hurt by the summer drought. According to the USDA, domestic corn production is expected to be down 13 percent from 2011, at 10.7 billion bushels. That would represent the lowest corn production volume since 2006.
For those reasons, the outlook for US corn exports going forward is less positive than a few years ago, Abbott said.
"We've tried to accommodate the export markets by working to increase production, but we haven't managed to do that," he said. "We've had to keep feed use flat and watch exports shrink.
"All the hard work we did to build export markets has been hurt by the high commodity prices of the last four or five years. As a result, the world has figured out ways to meet their own needs. And with a couple of exceptions like China buying more soybeans, we're probably going to see weaker export demand in the future."
