March corn traded lower throughout the day amid another round of weak demand side data. Inspections for the week ending December 13th were pegged at 15.02 million bushels which fell in line with market estimates and was up from 7.9 million last week.
Traders viewed the data as negative to price action after the volume needed to ship each week grew to 24.52 million bushels vs. 24.3 the week prior.
Cumulative inspections are now 20 per cent of the current USDA estimate vs. the 5 year average of 27.5 per cent. South American weather is offering a neutral to negative bias towards price direction in the short term.
Brazil showers favor the south over the next two weeks and the northeastern region will trend a bit drier. Rainfall returns to Argentina by Tuesday and Wednesday but a drier period is expected in the 11-15 day forecast.
CIF corn basis was steady to slightly higher midday as futures trended lower. Traders noted that export demand was very slow as South American continues to offer cargos at a stiff discount to the US.
January Rice finished down 0.215 at 15.205, equal to the high and equal to the low.
Soy Futures Closed Higher
January Soybeans finished up 1/4 at 1496 1/4, 12 1/2 off the high and 3 3/4 up from the low. March Soybeans closed down 3 1/4 at 1488 1/4. This was 3 3/4 up from the low and 13 off the high.
January Soymeal closed down 2.3 at 455.4. This was 1.4 up from the low and 6.6 off the high.
January Soybean Oil finished down 0.2 at 49.79, 0.56 off the high and 0.31 up from the low.
January soybeans ended the day nearly unchanged after moving above $15.00 overnight but failed to settle above the closely watched level.
Weaker action in the corn and wheat markets kept gains limited on the day but strong end user demand continues to support spreads and cash basis levels.
CIF basis in the Gulf of Mexico was steady on the day but holding at historically high levels as world buyers continue to look to the US for soybeans and products.
Inspections for the week ending December 13th were pegged at 36.9 million bushels which was slightly below market estimates and against 46.6 million bushels last week.
Only 17.6 million bushels are needed each week to reach this crop years USDA estimate, down from 18.1 last week. The cumulative inspection pace is 51 per cent of the USDA estimate vs. the 5 year average of 39 per cent.
Additional support stems from a staggering domestic crush rate. September through November crush is estimated at 430.58 million bushels, up 9.6 per cent from the same period last year.
The USDA is currently projecting this crop year's crush demand at 1.57 billion bushels, down 7.8 per cent from last year. The strong pace of crush vs. the USDA estimate is supportive to the price outlook short term.
Wheat Futures Closed Lower
March Wheat finished down 6 at 808, 11 off the high and 3 up from the low. May Wheat closed down 6 at 820 1/4. This was 3 1/2 up from the low and 10 1/2 off the high.
March Chicago and KC traded lower on the day following forecasts that show a more active rainfall pattern next week and possibly over the next 2 weeks.
Areas of Kansas, Nebraska, and Oklahoma saw precipitation over the weekend but accumulation was light. Thoughts that US wheat is working into feed rations in 2013 and Chicago wheat is now competitive in the export market are seen as a positive to traders.
The wheat market drifted lower early in the session after export inspections were disappointing to most. Inspections for the week ending December 13th were reported at 16.4 million bushels, up from 13.9 last week.
Shipments needed each week to reach the USDA export estimate are now 22.9 million bushels, up 263,000 bushels week over week. Cumulative inspections are now 47 per cent of the USDA estimate vs. the 5 year average of 55 per cent.
CIF wheat basis was steady on the day as futures trended lower. Many expect export demand for Soft Red Winter wheat to pick up just after the New Year.
KC wheat remains highly uncompetitive in the global trade but the drought conditions in the western plains continue add a supportive tone to the market.
March Oats closed down 1/2 at 389 1/4. This was 6 3/4 up from the low and 4 3/4 off the high.
