creage has estimated to be around 5.23 million hectares (ha) during 2014-15 sugar season, down by 2 per cent, as compared to the same period last year, Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.The estimates were released after detailed analysis of satellite images of mid-June, 2014 on the sugarcane acreage across the country procured by ISMA.
ISMA has made its preliminary estimates of sugar production for 2014-15 sugar season (October 2014 to September 2015).
ISMA estimated that based on the acreages, estimated yields and sugar recovery, as well as drawal of sugarcane by the sugar industry and current rainfall progression and availability of water in the reservoirs, the preliminary estimates for sugar production in 2014-15 sugar season, works out to around 25.3 million tonnes of sugar, recording 4 per cent higher than the estimated sugar production of around 24.3 million tonnes in June 2013-14 sugar season.
With an estimated opening balance of sugar of around 7.5 million tonnes, as on October 1, 2014 for the next sugar season and sugar production as estimated above, there will more than sufficient sugar to take care of domestic requirement, of around 24.5 million tonnes next year, ISMA adds.
As per the satellite images, the sugarcane crop acreage in Maharashtra and Karnataka is higher, even though the acreage in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Tamil Nadu is lower.
Since Maharashtra and Karnataka, showing higher cane acreage, give better cane yields and sugar recoveries while in UP and Tamil Nadu, it is lower, and overall it is estimated that even though the area for 2014-15 sugar season across the country is 2 per cent lower than that in 2013-14 sugar season.
However, there are doubts on the rainfall in the western part of the country, which may have some impact on currently estimated yields and recoveries from Maharashtra and North Karnataka.
ISMA said by August – September 2014 period, there would be more clarity on monsoon progression and crop acreage and the association will accordingly release its first advance estimates for 2014-15 season in September 2014.
As per the images, substantiated by field reports, it is estimated that the sugarcane acreage in UP in 2014-15, would be around 9 per cent less than 2013-14 sugar season. Therefore, as compared to 6.5 million tonnes of sugar produced by UP sugar mills in 2013-14, it is estimated that in 2014-15, sugar production might be less than as compared to 2013-14 sugar season.
The higher acreage under sugarcane being seen in Maharashtra, is estimated to be about 13 per cent higher over last year.
Additionally, with the share of 18 month crop and the 15 month crop, being higher than the last year, the estimated sugar production from Maharashtra could be higher as compared to 7.7 million tonnes produced in 2013-14 sugar season.
Karnataka, which achieved their highest ever sugar production of about 4.15 million tonnes in current 2013-14 sugar season, is showing about 5 per cent higher sugarcane acreage for 2014-15.
With higher percentage of pre-seasonal crop, mostly in Northern Karnataka, the sugar production in Karnataka is estimated to cross the current year’s historically highest production.
The acreage in Tamil Nadu is seen to be lower by 7 per cent over last years and with lower rainfall in the last several months, which might impact the recovery adversely, the sugar production may see a further fall from the current year’s production of around 1.4 million tonnes in 2013-14 to even less in the next season of 2014-15.
However, the State of Gujarat is estimated to have more acreage under sugarcane by around 4 per cent, The estimated sugar production might go up from current year’s 1.17 million tonnes in the next season of 2014-15.
The sugar production from the other States is expected to be similar to what has been reported in the current sugar season.
Since sugarcane crop is largely grown on irrigated area and with current water level in reservoirs being in good position, the impact of lower rainfall, if any, in June – July can be minimized.
