As 2013 approaches and the negotiations continue to avoid the "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and program cuts, it's becoming increasingly unlikely that Congress will pass a farm bill.
"The reality is that there is a very serious risk that we might not get a farm bill done this year," Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack acknowledged last Wednesday at an event sponsored by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, USA TODAY reported. "The uncertainty of not knowing what the policies are going to be will create difficulties. We need a farm bill and we need it now."
The National Sustainable Agriculture Committee (NSAC) last week noted discussions have ceased on a negotiated settlement between a Senate-passed version of the farm bill and legislation that was passed by the House Committee on Agriculture. That development has hurt the prospect that Congress will pass a five-year farm bill.
"Absent a last-minute miracle, which — while welcome — frankly appears remote, there seemingly must be a Plan B for the farm bill," the NSAC wrote in a blog.
But whether lawmakers can reach an agreement, and what the legislation would entail, is far from certain.
"Like most folks, I find it plausible that a farm bill gets attached to some last minute fiscal cliff solution," Cornell University professor of agricultural economics Andrew Novakovic told CBSNews.com, "but it also seems that the Kumbaya between the two Ag Committees has suffered lately, as [the Congressional Budget Office] is saying you can't have all of the above …. From the outside anyway, it has become less clear what farm bill would get tacked on to a broader bill."
Failure to pass a farm bill before the end of the year is expected to have significant ramifications, including the potential that the price of milk will soar. Under rules that are 63-years-old, the Agricultural Department would be required to purchase dairy products for roughly twice the current market price, The Washington Post's Editorial Board warned, potentially driving up the cost of milk to $8 per gallon at supermarkets.
In June, the Senate passed a version of the five-year, $500 billion farm legislation, which covers such areas as agriculture, conservation, forestry policy and nutrition. The House Agriculture Committee passed a version of the farm bill the following month. The legislation would save more than $35 billion in mandatory funding, repeal or consolidate more than 100 programs and cut billions in discretional spending authority, according to a summary of the legislation.
Sen. Debbie Stabenow, the Michigan Democrat who chairs the Senate Agriculture Committee, told The New York Times earlier this month that farm legislation should be part of any deal to cut the deficit.
"The Farm Bill is the only deficit reduction bill that passed the Senate this year," she said. "It's only natural it should be part of a larger deficit reduction agreement."
But Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) told USA TODAY that "Speaker of the House John Boehner has thrown cold water on the possibility of the inclusion of the farm bill in the fiscal cliff discussion."
