Giving a little support to commodities was a sharply weaker dollar index and stronger equity indices. Corn is now trading above $7 again, but traders were unwilling to push the market much higher with the big reports being released today.
For corn, the average analyst guess was for ending stocks to be higher by about 20 million bushels, but what we got was a revision lower by 45 million bushels. This revision lower was a result of higher feed usage (up 300 million bushels), lower exports (down 200 million bushels), and higher overall production by 55 million bushels.
The amount of the feed and export demand revisions took the market by surprise. Ethanol and export demand will still have to be monitored as both are suspect for revisions lower in subsequent reports. Corn had another lackluster week of export sales with only of 12,600 MT for marketing year ‘12/’13.
For soybeans, the average analyst guess was for ending stocks to increase by a meager 3 million bushels and what we got was a revision higher by 5 million bushels. Production increases for yield and harvested acres was reported almost as expected.
Counteracting the increase in production were demand increases. Crushings were increased 35 million bushels and residual use moved higher by 4 million bushels. Export sales revisions were expected but not reported. Export sales were reported of 321,800 MT for marketing year ‘12/’13 in this week’s report.
For wheat, the average analyst guess is for ending stocks to decrease by 13 million bushels, but a decrease of 38 million bushels was reported. Most of the revision is due to feed use increasing by 35 million bushels. Seed use was also revised higher by 2 million bushels. Surprisingly, little was changed on the global marketplace for wheat. This week’s export sales report showed sales of 233,700 MT for marketing year ‘12/’13 for wheat.
Friday’s report gave the market direction for the weeks to come, which is a change of pace from the mundane trade we have seen this week. Demand side figures will be important to watch especially for corn and soybeans as we continue to move forward in this marketing year.
Friday was historical as the reports were released at a new time 11 AM central time and as the markets traded for the first time for the January reports.
