U.S. Investment bank Goldman Sachs said Monday it expects the global cocoa market to see a modest deficit of around 100,000 metric tons during the 2012-13 crop year due to a rebound in global bean processing and stable production, following two consecutive years of surplus.
But despite the anticipated deficit, the bank said it expects limited upside to cocoa prices because of historically high beginning stocks this crop year, the potential for an improved mid-crop in West Africa and the net speculative positioning on the futures market that is currently above its multi-year average level.
As a result, the bank pegs its three-, six- and 12-month forecast for ICE cocoa futures at $2300 a metric ton, $2400/ton and $2500/ton respectively. That compares with the bank's earlier forecasts of $2308/ton, $2222/ton and 2438/ton.
The most actively traded contract on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange Friday settled down 0.6% at $2,256 a ton.
On the supply side, Goldman Sachs said longer term, the production outlook for Ivory Coast remains key to cocoa prices because of aging orchards and poor infrastructure--both of which have hampered output of the sweet bean over the past few years.
The bank added, however, that the Ivorian government's reform of its cocoa sector, a condition stipulated by the International Monetary Fund for debt relief, should help to increase production levels out of the world's number one producer because of higher levels of investment.
At the World Cocoa Conference late last year, President Alassane Ouattara said a lack of investment in Ivory Coast's cocoa sector must be addressed to ensure sustainable cocoa supplies for the world so that chocolate doesn't become a luxury item.
