Not only are Brazil and Ukraine taking some of that corn export market, so are countries that rarely export much, including India, he said.
The result is that the projected exports of 900 million bushels from the U.S. 2012 crop will be the lowest share of global corn shipments in Foreign Agricultural Service records going back to 1960, Riley said.
USDA's current projection for exports from a big 2013 crop have them bouncing back to 1.5 billion bushels, slightly less than after the 2011 crop but still short of 1.8 billion bushels sold from the 2010 crop.
"This is an interesting case, and we see some recovery, but not next year. It might be a longer-term recovery," Riley said.
USDA also has a forecast for corn use by ethanol plants that isn't bullish.
Two years ago, the ethanol industry was using more than 5 billion bushels of corn from the 2010 and 2011 crops. Last year's drought cut ethanol's grind of corn to 4.5 billion bushels. Even a record crop from 2013 will bring ethanol's corn use (which includes distillers' grains as well as fuel) up to 4.675 billion bushels.
"We can't see much of a rebound . . . because we have a gasoline problem," Riley said.
Gasoline use is declining, not growing, in the U.S., which "reduces the potential pool for ethanol."
Miles driven by U.S. vehicles peaked in 2007, he said. The causes are many: recession and slow recovery, changing demographics (older people drive less) and more fuel-efficient cars and trucks.
USDA's expected changes in soybean production and prices aren't quite as breathtaking as the corn outlook, partly because the crop wasn't hit as dramatically by last year's drought. The USDA Outlook has planted acres virtually unchanged -- 77.5 million acres this year vs. 77.2 million in 2012. Yields are projected at 44.5 bushels an acre, up from last year's 39.6 bushels. Slightly fewer 2013 harvested acres would produce 3.4 billion bushels, about a 400 million-bushel increase over the 3 billion-bushel 2012 crop.
U.S. soybean exports are projected to rebound from 1.345 billion bushels from the 2012 crop to 1.5 billion bushels after 2013. But with more competition from a better South American crop than a year ago, prices are projected to fall from the $14.30-per-bushel average for the 2012 crop to $10.50 a bushel.
