Total U.S. corn supply in 2012-13 was unchanged from March at 11,894 million bus, including beginning stocks at 989 million bus, imports at 125 million bus and 2012 production at 10,780 million bus.
Projected feed and residual use in 2012-13 was projected at 4,400 million bus, down 150 million bus, or 3%, from 4,550 million bus in projected in March and down 145 millon bus from a slightly revised 4,545 million bus in 2011-12.
Food, seed and industrial use was projected at 5,937 million bus, up 50 million bu from 5,887 million bus in March due to a 50-million-bu increase in projected use of corn for ethanol and by-products at 4,550 million bus. Projected use of corn for food and seed was unchanged at 1,387 million bus.
U.S. corn exports in 2012-13 were projected at 800 million bus, down 25 million bus, or 3%, from 825 million bus in March and down 743 million bus, or 48%, from 1,543 million bus in 2011-12.
Total use of corn in 2012-13 was projected at 11,137 million bus, down 125 million bus from 11,262 million bus as the March forecast and down 1,390 million bus, or 11%, from 12,527 million bus in 2011-12.
“Corn feed and residual disappearance is lowered 150 million bus reflecting indicated disappearance for the first half of the marketing year,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Domestic corn use for 2012-13 is projected 100 million bus lower as a 50-million-bu increase in corn used to produce ethanol partly offsets the lower projection for feed and residual disappearance. Larger-than-expected March 1 corn supplies, lower corn prices and favorable margins for producing and blending ethanol limit the expected year-to-year decline in ethanol production during the second half of the marketing year. Corn exports for 2012-13 are projected 25 million bus lower reflecting the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments and additional competition from Brazil and Ukraine.”
The average farm price of corn was projected to range from $6.65@7.15 a bu in 2012-13, down from $6.75@7.45 projected in March but still above $6.22 a bu in 2011-12 and $5.18 a bu in 2010-11.
Carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2013, was projected at 125 million bus, unchanged from March but down 44 million bus, or 26%, from 169 million bus in 2012.
The U.S.D.A. 2013 soybean carryover was below the average trade expectation that was near 137 million bus, but soy complex futures still traded modestly lower after the report.
All 2012-13 soybean supply projections were unchanged from March. U.S. soybean production in 2012 was estimated at 3,015 million bus, down 79 million bus, or 3%, from 3,094 million bus in 2011. Soybean imports in 2012-13 were at 20 million bus, up 4 million bus from 2011-12. Total supply was projected at 3,204 million bus, down 121 million bus, or 4%, from 3,325 million bus in 2011-12.
U.S. soybean crush was forecast at 1,635 million bus, up 20 million bus from March but still down 68 million bus, or 4%, from 1,703 million bus in 2011-12.
Exports were projected at 1,350 million bus, up 5 million bus from March but down 12 million bus from 1,362 million bus in 2011-12.
Soybean residual use was projected a 5 million bus, down 25 million bus from March but up 4 million bus from 2011-12.
Total soybean use was projected at 3,080 million bus, unchanged from March but down 75 million bus, or 2%, from 3,155 million bus in 2011-12.
“Residual use is reduced based on indications from the March 28 grain Stocks report,” the U.S.D.A. said. The increase in projected crush “reflects strong soybean meal exports through the first half of the marketing year.”
The average price paid to farmers for soybeans in 2012-13 was projected to range from $13.80@14.80 a bu, unchanged from March but well above the $12.50 a bu average in 2011-12.
