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Monday's Monthly USDA Report Deemed Neutral to Slightly Bearish for Grain Futures

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Core Tip: Grain futures markets retained their weaker daily postures in the wake of Monday's monthly USDA supply and demand report.
Grain futures markets retained their weaker daily postures in the wake of Monday's monthly USDA supply and demand report.

Corn and soybeans did slightly extend their earlier losses after the release of the government data.

The carryover updates for corn and wheat came in below pre-report trade expectations and soybean carryover came in slightly higher than traders expected.

For 2013-14 U.S. carryover, corn came in at 1.456 billion bushels in March, down from the February USDA figure of 1.481 billion bushels.

For 2013-14 global carryover, corn was pegged at 158.47 million metric tons (MMT), up from 157.3 MMT in February.

Soybeans saw March U.S. carryover at 145 million bushels, down from the February figure of 150 million bushels. For 2013-14 global carryover, soybeans were seen by USDA at 70.64 MMT, down from February projection of 73.01 MMT.

U.S. wheat carryover in March was 558 million bushels, unchanged from the February estimate. For global carryover, wheat came in at 183.81 MMT in March, up from 183.73 MMT in February.

Old-crop corn exports are now estimated by USDA at 1.625 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from February. USDA's projection of the national average on-farm cash corn price is now $4.25 to $4.75. For soybeans, USDA did a 20-million-bushel increase in estimated 2013-14 exports.

The export estimate now stands at 1.53 billion bushels. USDA raised the national average on-farm cash soybean price projection to $12.20 to $13.70. On wheat, USDA made no changes on the supply or demand side of the balance sheet.

However, the estimate is about 12 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA now puts the national average on-farm U.S. cash wheat price at $6.75 to $6.95.

Attention of grain traders will now shift to upcoming planting conditions for U.S. corn and soybeans, especially since following a cold, snowy winter for much of the central U.S, and some weather forecasts for a cool early spring.

 
 
keywords: USDA Grain wheat soybean
 
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