Russian analytical firm SovEcon has raised its 2013/14 grain export forecast thanks to a weaker local currency and concern over Ukraine, it said on Monday. Turmoil in Ukraine, one of the world's key grain exporters via the Black Sea together with Russia, is supporting global commodities prices.
"The rouble's decline, higher global prices and possibly weaker competition from Ukraine cause strong support for (Russian grain) exports during the spring," SovEcon said. It has raised Russia's grain exports forecast to between 24.0 million tonnes and 24.4 million tonnes during the 2013/14 marketing season, which lasts until June 30. Previously SovEcon expected grain exports at 23.1 million tonnes.
Its wheat exports forecast was increased to 17.4-17.8 million tonnes from 16.5 million tonnes, while the maize (corn) exports estimate was raised by 300,000 tonnes to 3.8 million tonnes. The forecast for barley exports remained unchanged at 2.2 million tonnes. It said it expected Russia to export 1.5 million tonnes of grains per month in March and April, up from 1.3 million tonnes in February. SovEcon's estimate includes pulses and flour. The increase in global wheat prices has made Russian wheat more competitive on its traditional markets during recent weeks.
"This (factor) will allow Russian wheat exporters to continue to dominate the markets of Egypt and Turkey, the key for Russian wheat, and get into the markets of Western Africa (Nigeria, Senegal) and Morocco," SovEcon said. Additional demand from traders who are concerned over possible disruptions to supplies from Ukraine is also expected to support Russian wheat and maize exports.
It expects March maize exports to remain high at between 400,000 tonnes and 450,000 tonnes. The country has exported a record 2.3 million tonnes of maize since the start of October and by the end of February following a record harvest. Barley exports fell sharply in January and will remain at s low level until the end of the season as export resources in Russia's southern regions are dwindling.
