s expected to rebound in MY 2013/14 and MY 2014/15 in line with rising demand for soybean meal. The increase is being driven by Thailand’s growing livestock sector, especially in broiler, poultry layers, and hog operations.Demand from the aquaculture sector, primarily shrimp, is also increasing. Soybean imports are expected to grow in MY2013/14 and MY2014/15, accordingly. Local crushers normally import US soybeans only when South American supplies are short or North American prices are low.
US market share of the Thai soybean import market soared to 32 per cent in MY 2012/13 as a result of serious drought in Brazil and Argentina. However, the US share is likely to fall again to 19-20 per cent in MY 2013/14 as soybean crop production in the southern hemisphere return to normal levels.
All soybean meal, either derived from domestic production or imports, is utilized for animal feed production. Soybean meal imports in MY2013/14 are expected to be 11 per cent higher than MY 2012/13 and climb another three per cent in MY 2014/15.
Thailand’s major soybean meal import suppliers are Brazil, Argentina, and India. US soybean meal recently became more competitive when US soybean meal prices declined sharply in October and November 2013, and as a result, Thailand is likely to import 300,000-400,000 MT of US soybean meal in 2014.
Fish meal production is expected to be around 450,000-460,000 MT in 2014 and 2015.
Soybean oil production is estimated to increase in MY2013/14 and MY2014/15, in line with expected higher soybean deliveries to crushing facilities. Thailand is becoming a large supplier of soybean oil to other ASEAN and Asian economies, exporting 55,000-60,000 MT in the past few years. Its exports should increase to 70,000-75,000 in MY 2014 and 2015.
Thailand’s trade and production policies on soybeans, soybean meal, fish meal, and soybean oil remain unchanged from last year’s report.
