The International Grains Council raised to a 29-year high its estimate for world grain stocks at the close of 2015-16 – and forecast corn doing its bit to keep inventories high next season too.
The council lifted by 10m tonnes to 465m tonnes – “the most in around three decades” – its forecast for world inventories of coarse grains and wheat at the close of 2015-16.
The revision reflected a 10m-tonne upgrade to 206m tonnes in the estimate for world corn stocks, leaving them only marginally lower year on year, thanks to improved expectations for production in 2015-16 (which includes the newly-started Argentine and Brazilian harvests).
And world corn stocks look like remaining over 200m tonnes in 2016-17, for a third consecutive season, the IGC said, in its first estimates for next season.
‘Stocks to recede only slightly’
“Preliminary expectations are for a 1% expansion in global corn area in 2016-17, including gains in the US, the former Soviet Union, South America and Africa,” the council said.
While the resulting “small increase” in world corn production “is seen being entirely absorbed by higher use… ending stocks are projected to recede only slightly and will likely remain in excess of 200m tonnes”.
The IGC also raised to 711m tonnes, from 706m tonnes, its forecast for world wheat output – albeit representing a 21m-tonne drop year on year, but downplayed the extent to which this was likely to result in tighter supplies.
“Large stocks will help to cushion the impact” of the production decline, which reflected expectations of a retreat in yields from elevated 2015-16 levels, with area seen suffering “only a small drop”.
Barley forecast
For barley, the IGC, in its first forecast for 2016-17, said that world area “will probably be broadly unchanged year on year.
“Increases are predicted in Europe, the former Soviet Union and North America, but with drought containing area in North Africa.”
Still, barley yields too were forecast dropping from last season’s unexpectedly strong levels, leaving output down 3%.
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