FAS Quito's MY 2014/15 forecast is subject to no major production disruptions induced by an El Niño event commencing in the third quarter of 2014. Reportedly some meteorologists are anticipating the possibility of an El Niño that could rival the devastation wrought by the 1997/98 event.
Since 6 March 2014, an El Niño watch has been in place. Reportedly there is now a 50 per cent chance of an El Niño of any variety (i.e., weak, moderate or strong) occurring in 2014; normally there is a 33 per cent chance of one occurring.
FAS Quito forecasts total human domestic consumption in MY 2014/15 at 604,000 MT, up some 5,000 MT or 1 per cent compared to our MY 2013/14 estimate of 599,000 MT.
We find that around 65 per cent of the country’s sugar consumption ultimately is the form of direct human use (namely as white, brown or specialty sugars). The balance goes toward industrial use.
FAS Quito forecasts Ecuador’s sugar exports in MY 2014/15 at 13,000 MT, up 1,000 MT or 8 per cent compared to our MY 2013/14 estimate of 12,000 MT. Ecuador is self-sufficient in the production of refined sugar for domestic consumption, making imports unnecessary.
