Supply and Demand Estimates Report published on Friday 11 July shows global wheat supplies for 2014/15 raised 1.8 million tons with increased production more than offsetting lower beginning stocks. World production is raised 3.6 million tons to 705.2 million. This is down 9.0 million tons from last year but still the second largest production on record.The biggest foreign increases are 1.6 million tons for the EU and 1.0 million tons for Ukraine both due to continued favorable weather. Production is raised 0.5 million tons for Australia based on the latest government indications for area. Production is also raised 0.3 million tons each for Brazil and Serbia. Partly offsetting this month’s production increases is a reduction of 1.0 million tons for Kazakhstan due to June dryness and a decline of 0.5 million tons for Canada based on the latest area indications from Statistics Canada.
Global wheat consumption is raised 0.9 million tons with increased wheat for feed within the EU and higher food use for several countries. EU feed wheat is raised 1.0 million tons as wheat quality is expected to suffer in the lower Danube region because of excessive rainfall in recent weeks. Feeding reductions for Kazakhstan, Egypt, and Thailand are partly offsetting. Food use is raised for Indonesia, Sudan, Morocco, and Bangladesh but lowered for Egypt.
Global wheat trade for 2014/15 is lowered with exports reduced 1.0 million tons for Kazakhstan and 0.7 million for the United States. Partly offsetting increases in exports are made for Australia, Ukraine, and Serbia with improved crop prospects. EU imports are lowered 0.5 million tons due in part to larger expected supplies of feed quality wheat in Bulgaria and Romania. Imports are also lowered for Egypt and Mexico, but raised for Sudan, Indonesia, and Nigeria. With supplies rising faster than use, global ending stocks are raised 0.9 million tons and remain at a 3-year high.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at 113.1 million tons, up 5.0 million tons with higher soybean production accounting for most of the change. Soybean production is projected at a record 3,800 million bushels, up 165 million due to increased harvested area.
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 521.9 million tons, up 5.8 million from last month with soybeans and rapeseed accounting for most of the change. Global soybean production is projected at 304.8 million tons, up 4.8 million mostly due to higher production in the United States. Higher soybean production is also projected for Russia and Ukraine, both reflecting higher harvested area. Lower soybean production for India resulting from reduced harvested area partly offsets these gains. Harvested area is reduced based on planting delays resulting from the slow development of the monsoon in the main soybean producing states.
Rapeseed production is raised for Canada based on WASDE-531-4 higher planted area reported by Statistics Canada. Rapeseed production is also raised for Australia on higher area and yield. Global oilseed ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected at 99.7 million tons, up 3.6 million mostly reflecting a sharp increase in U.S. soybean stocks.
