The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Nov. 10 forecast U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2016, at 1,855,000 short tons, raw value, up 119,000 tons, or 7%, from October and up 88,000 tons, or 5%, from 1,767,000 tons on Oct. 1, 2015, which was revised up 70,000 tons, or 4%, from October.
The 2015-16 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 15.3%, up from 14.3% projected in October and above the required minimum 13.5% outlined in the suspension trade agreements between the United States and Mexico. The 2014-15 ending stocks-to-use ratio was 14.4%, up from 13.9% as the October estimate and unchanged from 2013-14.
Increases of 69,127 tons in beginning stocks and 50,000 tons in Louisiana cane sugar production resulted in an 119,000-ton increase in total supply and thus the boost in the stocks-to-use ratio for 2015-16. All other forecasts, including imports and use, were unchanged from October for the current year.
For 2014-15, which ended Sept. 30, 2015, beet sugar production was raised 68,000 tons while cane sugar output was lowered 8,000 tons. Total imports were raised 25,000 tons based on a 6,000-ton decrease in tariff rate quota imports more than offset by a 12,000-ton increase in other program imports and a 19,000-ton increase in imports from Mexico.
Use estimates for 2014-15 were raised 17,000 tons based on a 5,000-ton increase in exports, and a 12,000-ton increase in deliveries for food and other.
Forecasts for Mexico were adjusted in part based on data from Conadesuca, the U.S.D.A. said. Ending stocks for 2014-15 were raised by 49,000 tonnes, actual weight, to 811,000 tonnes, and for 2015-16 were raised by 218,000 tonnes to 982,000 tonnes. Production in 2015-16 was forecast at 6,056,000 tonnes, up 56,000 tonnes from October, while domestic use was lowered by 113,000 tonnes to 4,712,000 tonnes.
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