Brazilian corn exports set a record high volume in November, and despite more rains in the forecast, December corn exports are likely to rise nearly 10 percent from the previous month.
Since the beginning of November, the delay for bulkers waiting to load outside Brazil’s second largest corn port, Paranagua, has lengthened from 43 days to 56 days (tmsnrt.rs/1PQY3C9).
Both Paranagua and other southern ports, which have historically handled the vast majority of Brazil’s grain exports, have tallied well-above average rainfall over the past two months, during the peak of the country’s corn export season.
As excessive rains halt operations at port, the rains have sparked fears that Brazil’s grain export campaign would be negatively impacted.
Paranagua was certainly affected as it shipped the lowest volume of corn for November in over three years as loadings last month were disrupted by rains every other day, on average.
But Brazil as a whole met or exceeded expected monthly corn shipments, dispatching a record 4.9 million tonnes of corn in November as reported by the Brazilian Cereal Exporters Association. Lineup data from Williams Shipping Agency (WSA) in Brazil suggest this figure could be as high as 5.1 million tonnes.
Strong export volumes have been facilitated by both a massive relative increase in shipments out of northern ports and the continued competitiveness in prices.
Although December corn exports are looking to be quite hefty, Brazil would be wise to not become complacent. El Niño is seen as likely to extend the rains, and the soybean shipment window might be approaching earlier than many think.
NORTHERN SUPPORT
During November, northern Brazilian ports shipped as much corn in 2015 as in 2012 through 2014 combined, assisting in the country’s record-setting month (tmsnrt.rs/1m7A70D).
Northern ports have in recent years considerably increased both the exported volume and the total share of Brazil’s corn exports.
Northern Brazil, including ports from the state of Bahia northward, shipped 18 percent of the country’s corn last month compared to just 7 percent in November 2013.
Unlike their southern counterparts, ports in the north have been aided by dry weather. States in northeastern Brazil have recorded roughly one-third of normal rainfall amounts since early October.
The dryness has raised some concern for the 2016 harvest, but the northeastern states only account for 10 percent to 15 percent of Brazil’s full-season corn and soybean crops. Rain appears to be on the way for the area, which could potentially interrupt corn shipments.
CORN-FILLED DECEMBER
If the latest WSA lineup is any indication, Brazil will export even more corn in December than in November, when corn exports tend to peak in the South American country.
Reported monthly corn exports at the end of November were 2 percent to 6 percent larger than what was implied by WSA at the start of the month, despite the eventual delays due to rain that are not incorporated in the schedule.
The most recent WSA lineup from Dec. 4 indicates that 5.4 million tonnes of corn is slated to ship from Brazil in December, which would be an increase of nearly 10 percent on the month.
This figure expands to 6.1 million tonnes when including all the ships in the lineup with undetermined sail dates, and to 7.1 million tonnes if including ships with early January sail dates. These rough estimations easily surpass the record for this time period by at least 10 percent.
To the dismay of sellers of soybeans, the rains are expected to continue over the next two weeks in southern Brazil at nearly the same as their recent pace (tmsnrt.rs/1OeF5zk).
Despite the recent rains, waiting times at ports other than Paranagua have remained steady over the last month. The estimated wait time for bulkers departing Paranagua in December is the same – 56 days – as in November.
Apart from logistics, strong Brazilian corn exports remain supported by the economics.
Brazil’s currency, the real, continues to be relatively weak and the delivered price of Brazilian corn to key Asian buyers is still attractive over their U.S. counterpart. Freight rates (i.e., the Baltic Dry Index) have fallen by one-third over the last five weeks, helping keep delivered prices competitive.
But despite the economics and increased number of exit points for Brazilian corn, the rains will continue to cause headaches at most Brazilian ports through the end of the year.
ROUGH ROAD AHEAD?
Although corn exports look to continue to be strong in the near term, the start of the soybean-exporting campaign is coming up and could put Brazil to the test in a few short weeks.
The economics are not the problem. The gap in delivered price of Paranagua compared with U.S. Gulf soybeans to China has widened since last month (tmsnrt.rs/1m7AGrj).
And Brazilian soybeans are still cheaper even after factoring in the cost of the delays.
But logistics will continue to be a thorn in Brazil’s side, especially as buyers requiring immediate delivery may opt instead to pay the U.S. premium if anticipated delays worsen.
Meanwhile, added complications this year may come from the record-fast soybean planting in Paraná, which produces 18 percent of Brazil’s soybeans and is a key player in the export market due to its proximity to port.
Soybeans could be ready for market earlier than ever in parts of Paraná and surrounding states, putting added pressure on corn to leave ports sooner rather than later.
Read more at Reutershttp://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-grains-braun-idUSKBN0TR18620151208#jU8v8b3z6xLZG8aT.99
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