The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its Dec. 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report forecast the carryover of wheat in the United States on June 1, 2016, at 911 million bus, unchanged from the November forecast, and up 158 million bus, or 21%, from 753 million bus in 2015 and the highest since 2009-10.
The U.S.D.A. 2016 wheat carryover number was below the average of trade expectations at 917 million bus.
The unchanged 2016 wheat carryover forecast was part of an unchanged wheat balance sheet in December compared with the previous month. The U.S.D.A. said, by class, the “only changes are a 10-million-bu increase in 2015-16 hard red winter exports that is offset by a 10-million-reduction in hard red spring exports.” Total exports remained at levels that were the lowest since 1971-72.
U.S. corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was forecast at 1,785 million bus, up 25 million bus, or 1%, from 1,760 million bus projected in November and up 54 million bus, or 3%, from 1,731 million bus in 2015. The U.S.D.A. 2016 corn carryover was above the pre-report trade average expectation of 1,769 million bus.
U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2016, was projected at 465 million bus, unchanged from November, and up 274 million bus, or 143%, from 191 million bus in 2015. There were no changes from November made to any of the 2015-16 soybean projections. The 2016 U.S.D.A. soybean carryover number was slightly below the average trade expectation of 466 million bus.
Wheat futures traded higher after release of the report while corn and soy complex futures were mostly lower.
World wheat ending stocks were forecast at a record 229.86 million tonnes for 2015-16, up from 227.30 million tonnes projected in November and up from 212.07 million tonnes in 2014-15. Global wheat production was forecast at 734.93 million tonnes, up from 732.98 million tonnes in November and the third consecutive record, the U.S.D.A. said.
World corn ending stocks were projected at 211.85 million tonnes for 2015-16, down from 211.91 million tonnes in November but up from 208.19 million tonnes forecast for 2014-15.
Global 2015-16 soybean ending stocks were projected at 82.58 million tonnes, down from 82.86 million tonnes in November but up from 77.66 million tonnes in 2014-15.
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