Recent thunderstorms and unseasonal rainfall in India has caused an expected 10-15% decline of the mango crop. Although mango bulbs and flowers were damaged by the adverse weather, the damage is not so extensive as to send prices soaring.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast says the rain and thunderstorms will likely continue for a couple of days more which may damage mango flowers further.
Data compiled by the National Horticulture Board (NHB) in its First Advanced Estimate forecast India’s mango output at 19.52 million tonnes in the crop year 2015-16 as compared to 18.52 million tonnes in the previous year. NHB forecasts India’s acreage under mango at 2.2 million hectares this year compared to 2.1 million hectares last year.
Mango farmers had been enthusiastic about estimates of additional income on higher output estimates this year following favourable climatic conditions. Barring sporadic crop damage, especially in Ratnagiri district of Maharashtra, the hub of the ‘Alphonso’ variety, due to a cold wave, the climate was supportive this year.
But the lower output estimates mean that there may not be a windfall in income for growers.
Prasad Jadhav, a mango farmer in Ratnagiri district of Maharasthra, is worried about a decline in his income from the last few years, but concedes that he does not expect any drastic change in his fortunes this year despite lower mango output in Ratnagiri, the hub of ‘Alphonso’ mango in Mahrashtra.
“The season started with a base price of Rs 1000-1200 a dozen early this week, almost similar to last year,” said Jadhav.
“As the season goes ahead, the price of ‘Alphonso’ mango may decline when other varieties hit the markets from remote Maharasthra and Gujarat followed by Madhya Pradesh, South Indian states and Uttar Pradesh,” he pointed out.
Ali, too, sees little possibility of a significant increase in mango prices this year due to stiff competition from several states.
Meanwhile, Indian exporters say they have received large orders from the European Union (EU) and the United States (US) for mango, primarily of Alphonso and other popular varieties such as kesar, among others. However, orders from other destinations including the Middle East, have been tepid. As a consequence, exports may remain flat this year with only a marginal upward bias.
