New fishing season’s quota and opening were not launched as estimated in May, and the news of fish resources caused a new round of price going up. As Peru couldn’t start its new fishing season before June, Chinese domestic fish meal traders were more willing to increase the price, which continued to push the market price up. What’s more, in normal situation, the arrival time of imported Peruvian fish meal to Chinese ports just caught up with Chinese peak season of fish meal demand. But because the Peruvian A fishing season was put off, there would be a shortage of steamed fish meal from June to August. It’s estimated that the steamed fish meal price would keep its high level until September.
Overseas Situation
Peruvian First-round resources survey report
The report carried out by Imarpe showed that anchovies resources didn’t live up to their expectation. The ocean resources were estimated at only about 4.42 million metric tonnes. Calculated according to strict ocean biomass requirement of 5 million tonnes, new season’s quota shouldn’t be allotted. But with easing policies, the quota should be about 0.4-0.8 million tonnes. Considering comprehensive suggestions from different parts, Peruvian Ministerio de la Producción(Ministry of Production) demanded a resurvey of the fish resources.
Peru initiated second-round survey
Imarpe launched its second investigation of anchovy resources by the end of May, which was expected to end on 20th June. According to the Vice Minister of Ministry of Fisheries and Aquaculture, Juan Carlos Requejo, he hoped to gain the primary survey report on 8th June. If the result was optimistic that there was a large amount of fish resources, experimental fishing and other adaptive management measures would be carried out. But, new season’s final fishing quota would be decided after the investigation, last week of June.
Factories reluctant to selling without quota
The new fishing season would be further postponed with uncertain factors. Therefore, most of Peruvian fish meal factories were reluctant to release the quotation of the fish meal while a few factories increased the price once again recently. It’s known that present reference price of Peruvian steamed dried fish meal was at about CNF 2,050 US Dollars/tonne.
Peruvian fish meal demand decreased
Toxic algae caused massive death of salmon in Chile this year. As a result, Chilean demand for fish meal dropped while part of its supply would be exported to China. It’s estimated that Chilean fish meal exported into China would increase 2-3 metric tonnes from June to August. The whole year might improved as many as about 5 tonnes.
Domestic Situation
Imported fish meal price high and strong
As the second-round survey was implemented by Imarpe and new fishing season postponed, domestic fish meal traders held strong desire for selling. The rapid growth of price since May brought a lot of profits to them. Present price is high and stable. Early trading contract were the main transaction completed by feed enterprises with a positive attitude towards picking up the goods. New orders are relatively fewer than early signed purchasing contracts recently. There are no big fluctuations in fish meal market price now, but a few enterprises have strong willingness to improve the price. It’s known that present steamed dried fish meal port price was about 14, 000 yuan/tonne.
Homemade fish meal and chicken meal price go up
With the strong growth of the price of imported fish meal, homemade fish meal price also goes up. It’s reported that some quotations of 63 No. semi-skimmed protein fish meal was up to 10, 800 yuan/tonne. The price is expected to continue going up with a lot of profits. Present reference price of chicken meal was about 7, 500 yuan/tonne, 500 yuan/tonne more than that days ago.
Port storage slipped a little
In April, China imported 122, 971 tonnes of fish meal, which doubled compared with the price in last April and increased 78.8% compared with that of March. The total import quantity of first four months was 282, 559 tonnes, increasing 18.3% year on year. Although imported fish meal increased, feed factories were active in stocking up the product under the high price background. So the storage in ports slipped a little. The imported fish meal from Peru in March was about 50, 000 tonnes while in April was about 57, 000 tonnes.
Overall, because of the postponed fishing season the shortage of supply in the beginning of peak season would gradually appear, which would support the market price. Peruvian second fish resources survey was already launched and the final quota was looked forward to by outside under the background of high fish meal market price; customers are cautious about procurement. There would be shortage of fish meal supply from June to August. The steamed dried fish meal price was expected to remain high until September. The fish meal market after October should keep an eye on the market of B season in Peru.
