Chicago soybeans hit 10-year lows on Tuesday as the harvest of a record U.S. crop advanced rapidly while the continuing U.S.-China trade war darkened U.S. export prospects.
Corn hit a three-month low on U.S. harvest pressure, while wheat rose as frosts threatened Australian exports. Chicago Board of Trade most-active soybeans were down 0.4 percent at $8.19-3/4 a bushel at 1042 GMT, its lowest since 2008.
Corn fell 0.2 percent to $3.47-1/4 a bushel, the lowest since June 19. Wheat was up 0.7 percent at $5.10 a bushel. U.S. President Donald Trump escalated his trade war with China on Monday, imposing new tariffs on about $200 billion worth of Chinese imports. “Soybeans are suffering from the latest news about the U.S.-China trade war along with the positive outlook for the U.S. harvest,” said Matt Ammermann, commodity risk manager with INTL FCStone. “As new import tariffs are imposed it is clear that the dispute is not likely to be solved quickly and no quick resumption of U.S. soybean exports to China is on the horizon.” “The U.S. is facing a huge soybean crop but the market is now waiting to see whether the high yields forecast will actually be gathered.”
After the market closed on Monday, the Department of Agriculture said the U.S. soybean harvest was 6 percent complete, above average analyst estimates of 5 percent and the five-year average of 3 percent. U.S. corn harvesting was 9 percent complete, near an average of analyst estimates of 10 percent and ahead of the five-year average of 6 percent, the USDA said. “U.S. soybean crop progress is good with 6 percent complete, but that means 94 percent is still on the fields so a lot can still happen,” Ammermann said. “Corn is little changed today as the market also waits final crop results as harvesting moves to the key production states.
The market also wants final figures on the actual U.S. crop yields.” Possible frost damage over the weekend in Western Australia threatened Australian export supplies. “Wheat is supported by hopes new signs of frost damage to Australia’s crop could move more global export demand to the United States,” Ammermann said. “The perspective for more demand for U.S. wheat after crop damage has been supportive recently.
But ironically if U.S. wheat futures rise too much because of hopes of new export demand, the high U.S. prices could stop new export sales.”
