Analyst Green Pool said on Wednesday it had raised its forecast for an anticipated global sugar surplus in the 2018/19 season to 3.60 million tonnes, raw value, from a previous projection of 3.22 million.
The surplus was, however, still much smaller than the estimated 20.0 million tonnes for the 2017/18 season.
The Australia-based analyst said the adjustment from its last projection issued in late October was due to a fall in expected consumption reflecting lower-than-expected growth in a number of countries including Brazil and Thailand.
“While we revised production slightly downwards, this iteration of the global balance also sees a small downwards adjustment to global consumption,” the analyst said in a report.
Green Pool said the most contentious issue with its numbers was likely to be its estimate for Indian production which it left unchanged at 34.1 million tonnes, tel quel.
“This is contentious only because the Indian industry has lowered its crop forecast, and many analysts have followed suit,” Green Pool said.
“Yet early results for the harvest don’t look as bad as many assume, and an increased area should see the crop higher.”
Green Pool put India’s 2017/18 crop at 32.3 million.
The analyst downwardly revised its forecast for European Union sugar production in 2018/19 to 17.1 million tonnes, tel quel, from a previous projection of 17.7 million.
“This is mostly due to hot dry weather experienced in major beet growing countries over the summer,” Green Pool said.
