Chicago soybean futures ticked higher on Friday but the market is poised for its first decline in three weeks on lack of further purchases by China despite it holding trade talks with the United States. Wheat is set to end the week little changed as Egypt purchased Russian wheat in a tender, erasing the recent gains.
The most-active soybean futures on the Chicago Board Of Trade are down 1.2 percent for the week, the first weekly fall in three weeks. Soybeans hit a low of $9.05-3/4 a bushel on Thursday, the weakest since Jan. 3. Wheat is up 0.1 percent this week after closing 1 percent higher in the previous week and corn futures down nearly 1.1 percent for the week after closing up 2 percent last week. “The market has been expecting China to make more purchases of U.S. soybeans but that has not happened,” said a Singapore-based trader.
“Brazil is about to start harvesting its crop and there will be more competition in the market to sell beans.”
China’s commerce ministry said on Thursday this week’s trade talks were extensive and detailed, while the U.S. Trade Representative’s office said that China had pledged to purchase “a substantial amount” of U.S. agricultural, energy and manufactured goods and services.
In Brazil, statistics agency Conab cut its estimate of the 2018-19 soybean harvest that is underway to 118.8 million tonnes from 120.1 million in December, near the high end of trade expectations. Brazilian agricultural consultancy Agroconsult slashed its forecast for Brazil’s 2018/2019 soybean crop by 5.2 million tonnes on Thursday, citing a dry spell that has hurt soy fields. U.S. wheat export sentiment has taken a hit as Egypt bought Russian wheat in a tender. The 415,000-tonne deal countered recent expectations that Russian wheat was becoming uncompetitive overseas after a brisk first half of its export season.
There is a 65 percent chance of an El Niño weather pattern emerging during the northern hemisphere spring this year, a U.S. government weather forecaster said on Thursday. Commodity funds were net sellers of CBOT corn, wheat, soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures contracts on Thursday, traders said.
Grains prices at 0307 GMT Contract Last Change Pct chg Two-day chg MA 30 RSI CBOT wheat 517.75 4.00 +0.78% +0.00% 519.06 53 CBOT corn 378.75 2.50 +0.66% -0.33% 380.19 51 CBOT soy 910.00 3.25 +0.36% -0.93% 912.59 50 CBOT rice 10.86 $0.01 +0.09% +1.07% $10.67 68 WTI crude 52.44 -$0.15 -0.29% +0.15% $49.31 Currencies Euro/dlr $1.152 $0.013 +1.11% +1.12% USD/AUD 0.7192 0.008 +1.12% +2.67% Most active contracts Wheat, corn and soy US cents/bushel. Rice: USD per hundredweight RSI 14, exponential.
