There is increased pressure on the export of Thai durians and mangosteens. Government representatives state that there are no signs of abnormality, but it is undeniable that Chinese economic growth has begun to slow down as the Sino-US trade war continues, and Chinese consumers have reduced spending.
Thai durian and mangosteen are popular with Chinese consumers. In 2019, Chinese year of the pig, tropical fruit from Thailand may encounter sales difficulties as Chinese economic growth slows down and consumption declines.
The greatest risk at the moment is the possibility that Chinese fruit importers are unable to fulfill their purchase contracts with Thai fruit orchards and cooperations. Mangosteen is likely one of the affected fruits. The reported prices for mangosteen in 2017 ranged between 80-120 Thai baht [2.55-3.82 USD] per kg. That price has fallen to 60 Thai baht [1.91 USD] per kg in 2018.
The deteriorating market conditions for Thai mangosteens have people worried about the market prospect of the Thai durian. Mangosteen and durian are both tropical fruits popular with Chinese consumers and tourists. The Chinese economy will slow down as a result of the Sino-US trade war, and Chinese consumers will have less spending power. This will first become noticeable in the import of expensive fruit.
Data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows that Thailand exported 10.2 billion Thai baht [320 million USD] worth of durian to China in 2015. This number dropped to 8.87 billion [280 million USD] in 2016, but increased again to 15.90 billion [510 million USD] in 2017. It is still unclear what will happen this year.
