Earnings from pangasius exports reached $428.3 million in in the second quarter, up only six percent from 2011. For January through June, shipments of pangasius products totaled $853.7 million, up only three percent from the same period last year. Vietnam's fish sales continued to slide 10% in July, although it was too soon to see the effectiveness of the government's VND 9,000 billion loan package to help farmers and processors overcome difficulties.
Pangasius production for the third quarter is projected to ensure only 70% of the raw material needed for processing because farmers left their fish ponds or only belatedly stocked fish during the first two quarters. Prices for raw fish have thus far slumped by VND 2,000-3,000 per kilogram in the second and third quarters, but processors still couldn't afford to buy it. Prices were expected to recover in August and reach VND D24,000-5,000 per kilogram late in the third quarter.
Many sources in the industry are said to worry about a future scarcity of fish supply in the last months of 2012 and in early 2013. Short supply of commercial fish is because of drop in fish fingerlings production and farming superficies. Moreover, many fish processors and farmers lack money to pay back bank credits, so they cannot invest comprehensively and urgently in fish farming. Nevertheless, a rebound is expected by the end of the third quarter.
Pangasius exports to the EU kept falling by 16-20% in July and August 2012, but the EU still remains the most important market and contributes 25-27% of total pangasius export value. Other potential markets (Russia, Brazil, Colombia with proportion of 8.5-9%), have been limiting imports since the second quarter. The decline will drop by 40-50% in the third. Moreover, the price of exported pangasius cant rise in the third quarter, because other white fish like tilapia are in huge supply -- meaning declining price. So Vietnam pangasius can not stay out the trend.
Nevertheless, pangasius has seen strong growth in most importing countries, including the USA, a large market (up 27-30%), the ASEAN countries (up 30-40%) and China (up 40-60%). As usual in the third quarter, foreign fish importers accelerate buying fish to satisfy consumption demand in the year's end holidays; therefore, earning from export is predicted to reach its peak in this period. With shortage of raw material, lack of capital for fish processing for export, and uncertain global market, price of pangasius will keep rising.
