December corn traded a quarter cent lower at the midpoint of today's session but technical sell pressure picked up in the second half of the day to push futures 3-4 cents lower into the close.
Support came from a stronger wheat market but gains were limited due to a weaker soybean market . The corn markets sluggish pace of export sales continues to be a drag on futures in the short term but a worse than expected start to the US wheat planting season helped to support grain prices to start the week.
Export inspections for the week ending November 1st were reported at 14.7 million bushels vs. 15.5 last week and 26.3 million bushels are needed each week to reach this crop years USDA export estimate.
The cumulative inspection pace for 2012/13 is now 12 per cent of the USDA export goals vs. the 5 year average of 16.5 per cent.
Money flow by hedge funds could be key to price direction this week and many large fund traders have stepped to the sideline until the Presidential election is over.
The USDA will release an updated Supply and Demand report on Friday and some analysts believe the government could trim US corn production which is supportive to the price outlook long term.
November Rice finished up 0.15 at 14.86, equal to the high and 0.17 up from the low.
Soy Futures Closed Lower
November Soybeans finished down 22 3/4 at 1504 1/4, 20 3/4 off the high and 3/4 up from the low. January Soybeans closed down 23 1/2 at 1503 1/4. This was 1 1/4 up from the low and 21 off the high.
December Soymeal closed down 6.9 at 469.0. This was 0.6 up from the low and 8.4 off the high.
December Soybean Oil finished down 0.94 at 48.32, 0.9 off the high and 0.07 up from the low.
January soybeans registered double digit losses today as bulls took profits ahead of a USDA report that many expect will show an increase in the US average soybean yield and production.
Additional pressure was linked to a less than stellar outside market performance ahead of the Presidential election tomorrow. Traders noted that commercial and end user buying was active on the setback today as the US continues to export soybeans at a staggering pace.
Export inspections for the week ending November 1st were reported at 59.4 million bushels vs. 63.3 last week. Only 17 million bushels are needed each week to reach this crop years USDA export estimate.
Cumulative export inspections are 33 per cent of the current USDA export goal vs. the 5 year average of 19 per cent. The weaker tone in futures today was also linked to a more favorable weather forecast for South America this week.
Drier conditions are expected for Southern Brazil and Argentina while Northern Brazil is expected to see better rainfall. Both weather events could help summer planting progress and could be considered a short term negative to prices if they develop.
Wheat Futures Closed Higher
December Wheat finished up 1 1/2 at 866, 9 3/4 off the high and 3 up from the low. March Wheat closed up 3/4 at 879 1/4. This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 9 3/4 off the high.
December Chicago wheat ended the day in positive territory along with KC and Minneapolis wheat. Traders added risk premium to prices due to dry weather in the western plains and on hopes that demand may be picking up for high protein hard wheat classes.
The USDA will release an updated crop condition report this afternoon and the trade expects Good/Excellent ratings to be near 37-39 per cent which is down from 40 per cent last week.
The dry conditions in the western and northern plains are raising concerns that some of the crop may not germinate ahead of winter dormancy. Additional support was linked to thoughts that Argentina and Australian wheat production may decline in this week's USDA report.
Most analysts feel global wheat production may be slashed again which offers a bullish bias long term. Export inspections for the week ending November 1st were reported at 13.9 million bushels which was up from 9.7 million last week.
The sluggish shipment pace helped the bear camp the second half of the trading session. The US needs to average a whopping 25.9 million bushels each week to reach the USDA goal and cumulative inspections are just 35 per cent of the current USDA estimate vs. the 5 year average of 45 per cent.
December Oats closed down 9 at 358. This was 1/2 up from the low and 10 off the high.
