Demand is forecast to outstrip supply by just under 3Mt, although this is due to lower production rather than increased demand.
Demand rationing due to higher prices is likely to be in the feed sector rather than malting use. The stocks to use ratio is forecast to be the lowest since 2006/7 at 15 per cent of demand, although absolute stocks are forecast to be the lowest in almost 30 years.
Global Markets
Strategie Grains estimates the EU malting barley crop to be 12.06Mt, up by over 1.8Mt from 10.15Mt, in 2011/12. Total EU-27 barley production is estimated at 54.29Mt, of which 10.99Mt is forecast to be used for human and industrial use.
When biofuel use is removed, this suggests that 10.80Mt will be used for human consumption, of which 10.05Mt is forecast to be used in malting and animal consumption.
French quality was said to be good with 3.9Mt of the crop making malting and brewing grade, although with low premiums for malting use over feed, it is expected a proportion of malting barley will go for animal consumption.
Germany, which is usually a large importer of malting barley, produced a total 10.34Mt of barley this year (8.75Mt, 2011/12) and a greater proportion of this was malting quality. As a result, it is anticipated to import 0.3Mt of malting barley this year, less than previous years.
The Canadian barley crop has seen mixed fortunes with good yields producing a large crop, but lower than average quality reducing much of that crop to feed value. RMI Analytics estimates that 3-3.5Mt of Canadian barley is of malting grade.
UK barley production is estimated to be 5.527Mt, up by just over 0.5 per cent from last year, according to Defra.
Demand is expected to be nearly 5 per cent higher, mainly in the feed sector as barley becomes economical in feed rations due to the high price of other feed grains. Use for distilling is forecast slightly higher, continuing the long-term trend of increasing demand for Scottish whisky.
The challenging autumn for growers to drill winter crops may lead to increased interest in growers drilling spring barley in 2013.
Prices
As at 6 November:
- UK malting barley was €245/t FOB South Coast ports, (down €8 on the month)
- French feed was €232/t (up €2 on the month)
- French malting €238/t (up €4) FOB Creil
- Danish malting barley could be bought for €246/t FOB Danish Port (up €6)
AHDB/HGCA 2012 Cereal Quality Survey results
Final results from the AHDB/HGCA 2012 Cereal Quality Survey confirm that the UK barley crop has the lowest specific weight on record since 1977, averaging just 62.9kg/hl.
Winter varieties outperformed spring varieties with Flagon and Pearl both averaging 65kg/hl or above. Winter crops averaged 64.5 kg/hl and spring crops averaged 62.3 kg/hl.
Screenings were seen to be the highest since 2007, with 3.6 per cent of grain falling through a 2.25mm sieve. Screening levels were similar in winter and spring sown crops. Nitrogen levels were seen to be very good, averaging 1.6 per cent, down from 1.71 per cent last year.
Spring-sown barley averaged 1.57 per cent and winter barley, 1.69 per cent nitrogen. Skinning of grain has been an issue in 2012, particularly in the north. This has led to renewed interest to understand more about varietal differentiation and how the HGCA Recommended List can be used to provide better information to growers and the trade on varietal differences.
The recent agreement to site weather stations at RL sites will also help understand environmental factors associated with this issue.
HGCA has surveyed spring barley Recommended List trials for DON mycotoxin. All levels detected were lower than 400 PPB DON. These levels were lower than were seen in winter wheat RL trials, where some sites had levels higher than 500 PPB.
