With most of the state imports going to the politically-sensitive and socially-indispensable subsidised bread programme, this staple is also the most strategic commodity for the country.Boasting expectations of a bumper local harvest this year, the minister of agriculture said earlier this month that the government would cut its imports by 10 per cent as a result.
Egypt depends on imports to cover almost 50 per cent of the 18.8 million tonnes of wheat it consumes annually, with around 7.5 million tonnes used to produce subsidised bread.
Bassem Ouda, the minister of supply, has put the expected figure for local production for the year ending in June at 9.5 million tonnes.
However, a report by the US Department of Agriculture has described the estimate as “non-realistic”, saying that the best scenario would be for the harvest to increase by 2.3 per cent to reach 8.7 million tonnes.
The Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has echoed these reservations, pointing out that fuel shortages in Egypt could negatively affect the irrigation, collection and transport of the harvest.
“I think all the recent talk about an exceptional harvest this year is ungrounded or exaggerated and is just a manoeuvre to mask the government’s inability to pay for its imports due to the increased pressure on foreign currency,” a former senior executive in the local branch of commodities trader Cargill said.
