The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projected record high 2013-14 global wheat production.
The U.S.D.A. in its May 14 Wheat Outlook elaborated on its analysis of growing conditions overseas, painting a mostly rosy picture of improved weather through most of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa that was likely to result in 9% more overall output from foreign wheat regions, compared with 2012-13.
The Wheat Outlook said China was expected to remain the second largest wheat producer in 2013-14, accounting for about 17% of world output, and was forecast to produce 121 million tonnes, up 400,000 tonnes from 2012-13.
The WASDE projected U.S. wheat production down 9% to 2,057 million bus in 2013, but the Wheat Outlook said higher expected yields in the major foreign wheat-producing countries would more than offset the lower U.S. production, boosting “global wheat yield in 2013-14 by 3% and foreign yield by 4%,” the U.S.D.A. said.
“Weather through the beginning of May has been mostly favorable across Europe and the Former Soviet Union region, while the Middle East and North Africa are enjoying a blockbuster season,” the U.S.D.A. said.
“The EU-27, the world’s largest wheat-producing region supplying almost 20% of world wheat, is projected to increase its wheat production by 6.7 million tons, or more than 5%, to 138.8 million,” the U.S.D.A. said. “Overall, winter weather throughout the region has been mild, leading to low winterkill and an excellent level of soil moisture. Current conditions in both Spain and Italy also look outstanding,” the U.S.D.A. added.
In contrast, U.S. hard red winter wheat production was forecast down 23% from 2012 due to persistent drought from last fall and several late freezes in parts of the growing region.
