ed production, to include soybeans, rapeseed, mustard, peanuts, sunflower seed, cottonseed, and copra is forecast at 37.4 MMT in MY 2014/15 (Oct-Sep), a 2.5 per cent decrease from the current year. This forecast assumes normal weather patterns during the 2014 June-September monsoon.The expected dip in production, coupled with growing consumption, and tight stocks will moderate availability of oilseeds for millers. Consequently, total meal and oil production in MY 2014/15 will reach 18.4 MMT and 7.7 MMT respectively, a marginal decrease from the current year.
Assuming strong international demand for Indian oil meals, Post expects meal exports will increase by four per cent to 5.5 MMT in MY 2014/15 (NOTE: This forecast does not include castor and rice bran meal). Out-year opportunities for Indian meal exporters will ultimately be determined by domestic demand and international market dynamics.
India’s growing population, rising income levels, and changing consumption patterns are expected to raise edible oil consumption by 10 per cent to 19.1 MMT in MY 2013/14. As a result, imports will reach 11.3 MMT. Similarly, MY 2014/15 consumption and imports are forecast at 20.4 MMT and 12.4 MMT, respectively. India’s per capita edible oil consumption is estimated at 15.07 kg and remains significantly short of the current global average of 22.8 kg.
