Driven by stronger same-store sales and a more optimistic outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) posted a moderate gain in October. The RPI—a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry—stood at 102.1 in October, up 0.7% from a level of 101.4 in September. In addition, October represented the 32nd consecutive month in which the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.
“The October gain in the RPI was buoyed by broad-based improvements in the current situation indicators,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “In addition, restaurant operators are somewhat more optimistic about both sales growth and the economy in the months ahead.”
A majority of restaurant operators reported higher same-store sales for the 20th consecutive month, with October’s results representing the strongest performance since July. Sixty-one percent of restaurant operators reported a same-store sales gain between October 2014 and October 2015, up from 51% who reported higher sales in September. In comparison, 22% of operators reported a same-store sales decline in October, down from 27% in September.
While sales levels improved in October, the customer traffic results were similar to the August and September readings. Forty-one percent of restaurant operators reported an increase in customer traffic between October 2014 and October 2015, down slightly from 42% in September. Thirty-six percent of operators said their traffic declined in October, compared to 38% in September.
Restaurant operators reversed a downward trending sales outlook with somewhat more optimistic expectations. Forty percent of restaurant operators expect to have higher sales in six months (compared to the same period in the previous year), up from 35% who reported similarly last month. Meanwhile, only 6% of restaurant operators expect their sales volume in six months to be lower than it was during the same period in the previous year, down from 12% last month.
Similarly, restaurant operators are somewhat more optimistic about the direction of the overall economy. Nineteen percent of restaurant operators said they expect economic conditions to improve in six months, while only 9% expect conditions to worsen. This represented the strongest net positive reading in five months.
