After the shock of Brexit, and now the with the surprise win of Donald Trump in the American election, many are now wondering what the affects will be for the ASEAN countries and Obama's Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Asian shares slumped overnight as it became clear that the Republican challenger had pulled off a sensational victory, creating fears of global instability in the markets. Japan’s Nikkei led the response, dropping by 5% in a panicky selloff that fuelled fears of a repeat of a Brexit-style fall-out. However, Europe seems to have learned from its recent surprises with Brexit and the reaction was a bit more reserved, after a knee-jerk slide, the FTSE 100 index has recovered its losses and is trading flat.
Throughout his campaign, Trump had opposed the deal, saying on 30 June, 2016 that the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal (TPP) "will make NAFTA, in my opinion, look like a baby...We have to get smart, folks."
Trump held this stance throughout his campaign, saying that he felt that the deal was bad for America and was not to the benefit of everyday American citizens. However, all may not be lost for ASEAN, as no specific details regarding foreign policy were made, but his 'America first' stance does mean that it will be a waiting game to see what his next step will be.
Christopher Mahon, Director of Asset Allocation Research at Barings, backed this opinion with the statement; "His most well-known campaign rhetoric involves building a wall between the U.S. and Mexico, increasing deportations and tearing up NAFTA. Outside of North America, a tougher stance on China, via the introduction of tariffs and duties, could significantly impact emerging markets. Trade deals with the EU and Japan may also be at risk."
The question is now, what long terms affects will this have on trade with China, a market that many throughout the world have been actively busy trying to enter?
Stock market plunge after election results
Stock markets also responded immediately after the election results were announced, although they did recover slightly after what many described as a gracious and very presidential acceptance speech.
"Markets have pared their earlier moves following the substantial knee jerk reaction to Trump securing an unlikely victory over rival Hillary Clinton," shared Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at foreign exchange specialist Oanda.
"While the result was unexpected, the reaction in the markets stems once again from them being poorly positioned heading into the vote, overconfident that Clinton would ease to victory, despite only having a narrow lead in the polls and being embroiled in an FBI investigation days before. The greatest oversight was the significance of the anti-establishment feeling in the US, similar to that which prompted the UK to quit the EU in June. It’s clear no lessons were learned from the Brexit vote on June 23," Erlam continued.
"Markets generally rebounded quite well after Brexit but this was aided by the rapid response of the central bank and the UK quickly getting its political house in order, providing reassurance for investors. While Trump slightly soothed some concerns in his victory speech, uncertainty remains over what kind of a US he plans to lead and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to provide the same assistance that the Bank of England did at this stage. It will be very interesting to see whether they still intend to raise interest rates next month, as they have alluded to recently."
Only time will tell how the markets will rebound and what kind of long-term effects the election of President-elect Donald Trump will bring.
