Chicago wheat prices, a global benchmark for this type of grain, were periodically supported in recent months by speculation that Russia, one of the world’s largest wheat exporters, might move to limit exports later in the season due to a lower crop.
However, after a meeting in September, the agriculture ministry said it did not see a need to impose an export duty on grains or to curb grain exports in any other way.
Russian officials, who are keeping an eye on the pace of exports as Russia’s 2018 wheat crop is forecast to decline from a record 85 million tonnes in 2017, have become even less concerned over the situation since September, traders have said, as exports slowed.
Russian grain exports are up 21 percent so far this marketing year, which started on July 1, compared with 40 percent in early September, due to increased inspections by the agriculture safety watchdog and the stronger rouble.
Russian wheat export prices were also relatively stable last week, after more than a month of gains, as the risk of export curbs on grain eased.
Russian farmers are finishing the harvest of the 2018 crop and since the weather for their campaign was recently favourable in Siberia, the agriculture ministry this week raised its forecast for the country’s 2018 grain crop by 3 million tonnes to 109 million tonnes.
The ministry also raised its forecast for 2018/19 grain exports to between 38 and 39 million tonnes, which some market players interpreted as another sign of reduced risks of export curbs.
Russia’s Agriculture Ministry declined comment.
