According to Oren Klachkin, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, “2023 will be a better year, but supply chains will continue to cause headaches” and “the speed at which supply-side entanglements are resolved It will be key to determining how quickly inflation falls.”
HSBC has indicated that world trade growth next year will likely slow to 1,1%, from a rise of 6,1% this year, to match the rise in 2019 during a global industrial recession. According to HSBC economist James Pomeroy, it will be key to see how consumer demand responds to high inflation rates, as well as a return to travel and leisure spending after a couple of years spent on buying estate. "It seems likely to me that we will enter a year next year in which, on the goods side of the economy, the question will not be about inflation, but about deflation," he points out, not ruling out a demand for more goods. weak.
A key stretch of supply chains is shipping, so it is important to know how it will perform in 2023. In this regard, Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said that 2023 will see global container volumes moved fall as the cost of living crisis takes its toll on consumers. “Rates will come down,” he said because cargo capacity is growing steadily through the second quarter of 2024. “Disrupted supply chains should be able to fully unwind year-round: first in the ocean, then on the inside,” Sand said, adding that labor strikes and outbreaks of Covid infections in China pose risks to the outlook.
Hopes are high for the second half of 2023
Referring to the projected market strength for 2023, Heath Zarin, founder and CEO of EV Cargo, noted that “our expectation is that the first half will be more or less the same: continued economic weakness or weakness, which will then manifest in chains supply systems that work better, but in general there is less economic activity. The earliest we are seeing a recovery is in the second half of the year.”
Along with this he expects a return to a high level of M&A in supply chain services, especially in inland logistics. Proof of this is Deutsche Bahn's interest in exploring the sale of its logistics unit DB Schenker. “The pace of consolidation in the industry, both vertically and horizontally, is something that has been accelerated by Covid, and that will definitely continue,” he said.
