The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates on Oct. 9 forecast U.S. sugar carryover on Oct. 1, 2016, at 1,736,000 short tons, raw value, up 88,000 tons, or 5%, from September and up 39,000 tons, or 2%, from the current year. Carryover on Oct. 1, 2015, was estimated at 1,697,000 short tons, down 33,000 tons, or 2%, from 1,730,000 tons estimated in September.
The 2015-16 ending stocks-to-use ratio was projected at 14.3%, up from 13.5% projected in September and above the required minimum 13.5% outlined in the suspension trade agreements between the United States and Mexico. The 2014-15 ending stocks-to-use ratio was estimated at 13.9%, down from 14.2% as the September estimate.
Lower carryover for 2014-15 was the result of slightly lower domestic production, lower tariff rate quota imports, higher U.S. exports and higher food deliveries more than offsetting a 79,000-ton-increase in imports from Mexico. The increase for 2015-16 was the result of higher domestic beet sugar production, slightly higher tariff rate quota imports and lower food deliveries more than offsetting lower cane sugar production and lower beginning stocks.
“Deliveries for human consumption are increased by 60,000 tons to 11.935 million (for 2014-15) based on large imports of refined sugar for direct consumption, mostly from Mexico, the U.S.D.A. said. Imports from Mexico for 2014-15 were estimated at 1.530 million tons, which, if realized, “would exceed by about 4,000 tons the export limit imposed by the Countervailing Duty Suspension Agreement,” the U.S.D.A. said.
