Just before the boycott, Russia imported 8.5 million tonnes of fresh fruit and vegetables. Nearly 30 per cent of this, 2.3 million tonnes, came from the boycotted (primarily European) countries. Since the boycott, these countries have been looking for new markets to absorb the loss of the Russian market. Three years after the boycott was implemented, the question arises: Have the boycotted countries managed to tap into different / new markets to sell their products?
Of the export of fresh fruit and vegetables grown in the Netherlands, about seven per cent went to Russia before the boycott. The share that was sent to Russia in 2013 and 2014 was largest for white cabbage (8 and 42 per cent respectively) and carrot (18 and 21 per cent), followed by apples (6 and 9 per cent) and onions (4 and 7 per cent). According to the KCB/GFH, the export of fresh fruit and vegetables grown in the Netherlands amounted to 132,000 and 206,000 tonnes in 2013 and 2014, respectively. According to Russian customs, it concerned larger volumes from the Netherlands in both those years, 255,000 and 270,000 tonnes.
Gap of lost import from boycotted countries hasn’t been filled
How did the Russian market do after the import boycott was implemented in August 2014? In 2015, import dropped considerably by 6.9 million tonnes. Turkey profited most from the import boycott that year. The import from that country grew from 1.2 million tonnes in 2013 to 1.4 million tonnes in 2015. The import from other countries grew by a modest 0.4 million tonnes, from 5.0 to 5.4 million tonnes. When many Turkish products were no longer allowed into Russia in 2016, total Russian import dropped to 6.1 million tonnes that year. That was 2.4 million less than in 2013. That was the result of 2.3 million tonnes less from countries that implemented the boycott in 2014, 0.5 million less form Turkey and ‘only’ 0.6 million more from other countries.
Limited number of countries benefited from boycott
Which countries managed to fill the gap that had emerged? The country that reported the largest import growth was Belarus. In 2013, 260,000 tonnes of fresh fruit and vegetables were imported from that country, and as much as 650,000 tonnes in 2016.
The import from other countries combined was therefore about stable. That’s an average because there were actually countries that saw an opportunity to supply to Russia more. Egypt managed to sell 100,000 tonnes more in Russia (primarily oranges and onions). Other countries that managed to benefit from the gap were Azerbaijan (mostly tomatoes) and Serbia (apples). Important suppliers like Ecuador (bananas), China (top fruit, citrus, garlic) and Morocco (tangerines and tomatoes) did not manage to sell more.
Remarkably, various countries, despite the room on the market, were unable to supply more to Russia. The most important examples are: Israel, Argentina, Chile and South Africa. As an explanation for those last three, it can be said that these countries mostly ship their products to Western European countries and therefore managed to hitch a ride with the export flow to Russia.
Russian import down
At product level, especially the decrease of the import of apples is noticeable, from 1.35 million tonnes in 2013 to 0.68 million tonnes in 2016. Relatively, the decrease of the tomato import from 0.86 to 0.46 million tonnes was even larger. The import of pears also dropped considerably: from 380,000 to 244,000 tonnes. The import of grapes was more than halved, from 360,000 to 193,000 tonnes. The import of all products actually dropped pretty much. Exceptions were bananas (stable at 1.35 million tonnes), and tangerines, lemons, peaches and kakis.
Belarusian route softened boycott
Did the countries affected by the import boycott manage to find other markets for their products? This question has already been partially answered. In 2015 and especially in 2016, many products from EU countries were sold on the Russian market through Belarus or the Baltic countries. During the first half of this year, the amount of fresh fruits and vegetables that were imported via/from Belarus dropped considerably (by 20 per cent). The import of apples in particular from Belarus dropped considerably.
Based on Russian import figures, more than 600,000 tonnes of fresh fruit and vegetables were imported from Belarus in 2016. Important products, each with an import of almost 100,000 tonnes, were peaches and nectarines, apples and pears.
Based on import figures from Belarus, this mostly concerned import from Poland and Turkey. Remarkable is that Belarusian figures show hardly any import from Lithuania, while Lithuanian figures show much export to Belarus. In short, it’s difficult to get a complete image of the trade via Belarus in figures.
Pears: the Netherlands and Belgium found alternative markets
For the Netherlands and Belgium, pears were the most important product affected by the boycott. The export of Dutch pears based on KCB/GFH figures amounted to about 8,000 tonnes in 2016. In 2013 and the first half of 2014, between 35,000 and 40,000 tonnes of Dutch pears were exported to Russia, and two years before that it was even more than 50,000 tonnes.
In Dutch export figures, Lithuania plays a small part. However, import figures from Lithuania give a completely different image. In 2016, as much as 62,000 tonnes of pears would have been imported from the Netherlands. In short, it’s difficult to get a clear image.
Starting from the KCB figure, that doesn’t just register the export of the Dutch product, it shows that export to Russia, including Belarus and the Baltic countries, dropped from more than 60,000 tonnes in record year 2014 (January-July) to 20,000 tonnes now. That’s a decrease of 40,000 tonnes. In that same period, the export to other countries grew from 150,000 to 167,000 tonnes. Looked at like that, the gap hasn’t been filled. For that matter, an important growth market for the Dutch pears is Poland. More pears have also been exported to Spain in recent years. Furthermore, more Dutch pears have been sent to a large number of countries, although amounts are (for now) not sufficient to close the gap.
The export of Dutch export, including re-export (based on Eurostat) shows that the gap caused by the Russian boycott has been filled. The export to Russia, including Belarus and the Baltic countries, has dropped by about 50,000 tonnes after the boycott was implemented, while the export to other countries increased by 60,000 tonnes. The largest growth was recorded in Germany and the UK. Especially in the past season this wasn’t enough, because it was a large product.
Belgian pear export remained level, but that was all
Belgium doesn’t register the export of pears separately. During the last season before the boycott (2013/14), Belgium exported 155,000 tonnes to Russia, including Belarus and the Baltic countries. The three seasons after that, export dropped to an average of 70,000 tonnes.
However, the export to other countries increased considerably, especially during the 2015/16 season, so that the Russian gap was filled. During the 2016/17 season, fewer pears were exported to other countries from Belgium, but still considerably more (80,000 tonnes) than right before the boycott. The Belgian production in the 2016/17 season, compared to Dutch production, was smaller than in the preceding seasons.
That growth was realised in a large number of countries including most important buyers the Netherlands, the UK and Germany. Large growers (relatively speaking) are mostly Spain, Bulgaria and Bosnia. In the current 2017/18 season, the pear harvest is considerably lower in both the Netherlands and Belgium.
Much white cabbage was occasionally sent to Russia
For Dutch white cabbage, the importance of Russia (42 per cent) was very large in 2014. It was considerably smaller, only eight per cent, in the year previously. The share had never been as large as in 2014 in the previous years either, so it’s difficult to say what the boycott means exactly for the sales of Dutch white cabbage. Some thousands of tonnes could be sold in that country each year, in any case, and sometimes even (much) more. Few white cabbages have been exported to Belarus and the Baltic countries for years. The UK and Germany have been fairly stable buyers over the years. However, the Russian market occasionally ensured good results for Dutch white cabbage.
Limited new sales markets for carrot
In 2013 and 2014, just over 15,000 tonnes of Dutch carrot was sold on the Russian market. That amount corresponds to about 15 per cent of total carrot sales. After the boycott, few carrots have been exported to Belarus and the Baltic countries. Germany is actually the only stable buyer of any importance. Whether the Netherlands truly managed to find new buyers for carrot after the boycott was implemented is difficult to say due to the ever-changing export. However, there are countries where more Dutch carrots were sold after the boycott: Poland, Senegal, Austria, Mauritania and Ghana. On the other hand, in some countries fewer carrots were sold: Belgium, France and Romania.
Influence of boycott on tomatoes limited
For other products, Russia’s shares was limited. That doesn’t mean the amount that could be supplied to Russia couldn’t ensure (slightly) higher prices, especially when market balance was unstable.
The export of Dutch tomatoes to Russia was properly starting just before the boycott. In 2014, until the boycott was implemented in August, nearly 40,000 tonnes could be sold. The total export of Dutch tomatoes even rose to 800,000 tonnes in that year. Much was also exported to other countries in that year. In 2015, that level could be maintained towards other countries. In 2016, it decreased a little. New markets for the sales of Dutch tomatoes have not been found. Only the growth of export to Poland is remarkable.
Polish apples via Belarus
For apples, the Netherlands has not found an alternative after the Russian market was lost. The export of Dutch apples even decreased. The largest boycott victim for apples appears to be Poland at first sight, but currently, Poland manages to sell more than 500,000 tonnes of apples to Russia via Belarus, compared to more than 100,000 tonnes in 2013.
