Their findings formed the basis of a report for Bernstein’s “winners and losers” trilogy.
The winners
The report forecast that the average growth for the top firms would remain flat at 5.4%
Danone is predicted to record the highest sales growth of all companies with 6.8% growth forecast up until 2014.
Kraft will be the biggest mover. Between 2006 and 2010, the company had only the ninth largest sales growth of the top firms. Today, it commands third place behind Danone and Nestle with sales growth between 2011 and 2014 projected at 6%.
“Kraft’s jump into the top three was the biggest surprise, perhaps benefitting from strong pricing in its categories and best-of-class emerging markets exposure compared to its US food peers,” said the report.
It added that the top three should benefit further from emerging market exposure, which is set to increase further.
Losers
However, Danone and Kraft’s successes have been at the expense of others.
General Mills is forecast to move to ninth place between 2011 and 2014 after it had previously held the fifth spot between 2006 and 2011.
The report said that while sales growth for General Mills and tenth placed Campbell’s would decelerate in the next few years, growth will be considerably higher compared to 2011.
In the on-going battle between beverage behemoths Coke and Pepsi, Coke is forecast to maintain the sales edge with growth projected at 5.4% in the next two years compared to Pepsi’s 4.7%.
Bernstein's 2011-2014 sales growth forecasts
|
Rank |
Company |
Growth |
|
1 |
Danone |
6.8% |
|
2 |
Nestle |
6.3% |
|
3 |
Kraft |
6% |
|
4 |
Coke |
5.4% |
|
5 |
Pepsi |
4.7% |
|
6 |
Unilever Food |
4.7% |
|
7 |
Kellogg |
4.2% |
|
8 |
Heinz |
3.5% |
|
9 |
General Mills |
3.1% |
|
10 |
Campbell |
1% |
