Bulls can still become more active this week if they feel the carryout will drop on Friday. Bears will look for carryout to stay the same or be higher. Bears know that acreage and yield for 2012 corn can call, but demand can offset those losses if not even more.
Friday’s report has five limit moves in the last six years. One thing that shows is that this report typically catches the market by surprise and estimates are typically wrong. This is one report that might be better to react to rather than to place large trades ahead of it…Ryan Ettner
Soybeans: Beans are undervalued at these levels but we will most likely see a drastic change in price. The range over the last six years has been 20 cents to 70 cents (limit), with three years closing higher and three years closing lower.
We are looking for a slight increase for ending stocks but should already be priced in. The charts will look better if we can see a move back above 14.00 for the March contract. The November low of 13.56 will be important to stay above or beans will be open to more downside liquidation. This week will be positioning ahead of the report with most other news rather quiet…Steve Georgy
Wheat: The forecast for the spring continues to look dry, but with demand behind USDA's initial expectations and a carryout that is not overly tight by historic standards, we continue to struggle to gain traction to the upside.
Wheat over the last 10 years has seen six higher years and four down years. The four down years averaged a 36-cent loss and the six up years averaged a 13-cent gain.
On Friday’s report, we are going to see the USDA’s first thought on winter wheat acreage. We are expecting to see an increase of 2.1 million acres from last year to this year. This will be the most important piece of wheat info on Friday's report…Cordon Sroka
