A roughly 80 percent cut in Gulf of Maine Cod annual catch and a 61 percent cut in Georges Bank cod are being recommended to fisheries regulators by a special four-person panel.
The panel was appointed last year after the turmoil over radically and unexpectedly reduced estimates of cod populations. It re-examined the assessments and looked at newer ones and concluded that the picture is bleak indeed.
"There is little good news about the health of cod stocks in the Northeast," said Pat Fiorelli, spokeswoman for the New England Fishery Management Council.
"Eighty percent?" asked seafood consultant Jim Kendall. "I don't know why they don't shut the fishery down and get the guys into some program to help them survive. If they cut the stock 80 percent, it's just undoable."
Groundfish boats would quickly be over their limits on bycatch alone, Kendall said.
The recommendation is far from final. The report of the special panel will be taken up today in Boston by the council's Scientific and Statistical Committee.
Steve Cadrin, a UMass Dartmouth marine scientist who sits on the Scientific and Statistical Committee, said there may be several explanations for what scientists are seeing in the cod fishery.
Many wonder what it means that the fleet has caught only about half of its current year's allocation of cod, and even less in some other species. The cod may have moved, the climate is changing, and some fishermen are holding off fishing at all until prices improve, said Kendall.
Cadrin said Tuesday: "I have talked to some about this reserving of catch. You can't necessarily conclude that there are not fish out there."
"We will know more tomorrow," he added. "It's always difficult to predict what the SSC will recommend" to the full council, which has final say.
The recommended acceptable biological catches for next year are 2,002 metric tons for Georges Bank cod and 1,249 to 1,550 metric tons for Gulf of Maine cod. This year's acceptable biological catches are 5,103 and 6,700 metric tons, respectively.
One year ago, the council's scientists revealed cod estimates that showed the exact opposite of what they held in the previous assessment in 2008. Back then, cod were said to be abundant. Last year, cod were said to be badly overfished and were still being overfished.
A cutback of 25 percent was agreed upon as a temporary measure while the assessments were reviewed. The new recommendations indicate that last year's gloomy assessments were right, and the report is being held up as "best available science."
The full council, which met last month in emergency session, meets again over four days next week to take up the decision on cod and other groundfish allocations for the fishing year starting May 1.
