The International Grains Council in its most recent Grain Market Report forecast 2013-14 world wheat production at 683 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from its previous projection and up 28 million tonnes, or 4%, from 655 million tonnes in 2012-13. This year’s crop would be the world’s second largest; the record crop was 695 million tonnes in 2011-12.
With 179 million tonnes in carry-in stocks for 2013-14, the world wheat supply was forecast at 862 million tonnes, up 9 million tonnes from the previous year and compared with 890 million tonnes in 2011-12.
World wheat consumption in the current year was forecast at 682 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from the previous I.G.C. report, up 9 million tonnes from 673 million tonnes in 2012-13 and compared with a record 692 million tonnes in 2011-12.
Food use of wheat worldwide in 2013-14 was forecast at 469 million tonnes, up 4 million tonnes from 2012-13 and compared with 460 million tonnes in 2011-12. The I.G.C. commented food use of wheat was projected to expand “at the long-term trend of around 1%, driven mainly by population growth in development countries in Asia.”
Feed use of wheat in 2013-14 was forecast at 129 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from 2012-13 and down 18 million tonnes from 147 million tonnes in 2011-12. The I.G.C. noted, “Larger global maize supplies are expected to restrict use of wheat for feed in some countries, particularly in price-sensitive importing regions where the cost of imported maize may be more attractive.”
Industrial use of wheat in 2013-14 was forecast at 20 million tonnes, up from 19 million tonnes in each of the three preceding years. Most industrial use is related to manufacturing of ethanol in the European Union.
World trade in wheat in 2013-14 was forecast at 138 million tonnes, unchanged from 2012-13 but down 7 million tonnes from the record 145 million tonnes in 2011-12.
The I.G.C. forecast world wheat ending stocks in 2013-14 at 181 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from the previous year and compared with 198 million tonnes in 2011-12.
