o prices have dipped near or slightly below the cost of production, but the market appears to have bottomed out and may be poised for an upswing, according to University of Idaho Extension economist Paul Patterson.Patterson suspects the size profile of the 2013 spud crop — which contained a larger percentage of potatoes over 14 ounces but a 2.5 percent decline in 4- to 6-ounce tubers — contributed to price declines. He believes more crop than normal had to move through fresh sheds to fill consumer bags with small-sized tubers in demand for Thanksgiving. The glut of larger spuds likely led to increased packing of consumer cartons, which were aggressively shipped to free floor space.
Prices paid to growers have dropped steadily since peaking at $15.70 in August, prompting growers to kill vines early and flood the market in their efforts to cash in. USDA estimated the average price paid to Idaho potato growers in October was $8 per hundredweight. Prices continued eroding through November. Patterson calculates production costs, factoring in storage through October, ranged from $7.79 per hundredweight in eastern Idaho to $8.08 per hundredweight in southwest Idaho.
During the second week of October, the retail price for potato cartons ranged from $19-$24. Carton prices dropped to $17-$17.50 by the third week of November. Consumer bag prices, however, rose during that same period from $9-$12 per hundredweight to $13.75-$16.50 per hundredweight.
Kevin Stanger, senior vice president of sales with Wada Farms in eastern Idaho, agrees prices are currently close to production costs, but he’s not worried about the carton market and believes prices will pick up as supply dwindles in the spring and summer. Stanger said movement of potatoes was slightly ahead of the projected shipping schedule as of early November.
“I think the market is staying flat. In March and April it may pick up,” Stanger said.
