Recent reports reveal that in the globalised era farming will move towards meat and milk production from traditional rice and grain agriculture in line with the changing consumer tastes. The joint report by Food and Agriculture Organisation in Rome and the Paris based organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) of 34 leading world economies contained price and production forecasts to 2023 revealed that world meat production will have gone up by 58 million tonne with developing countries making up 80 per cent of increase. The biggest gains will be for poultry - 50 per cent of the total - and pork at 30 per cent. Moreover poultry was an inexpensive source of protein that was not subject to any religious or cultural bans. The report highlights that livestock production is projected to grow at higher rates than crop production. Moreover animal protein sources are easiest way through which protein malnutrition can be corrected easily.
Changing diets favour meat and milk producers
World’s existing cropland could feed at least 3 billion extra people if it were used more efficiently, showing that the large increases in population expected in the next three decades need not result in widespread hunger. The study published in the peer review journal Science by scientists at the University of Minnesota, USA, suggested that a focus on staple crops such as wheat and rice in key countries, including China, India, the US, Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan and Europe would pay off in terms of producing more food for the world’s growing population.
Most forecasts suggest that world population will increase from 7 billion to 9 billion by 2050. Research findings reveal that emerging trend is over-reliance on meat in the West and among the growing middle classes in the developing world. The study also found that disposal of a single kilogram of beef was equal to the waste of 24 kilogram of wheat in terms of the effort, water, fertiliser, greenhouse gases, cropland needed that had gone in to its production.
Maize will be a crop for the future, according to a report by United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The area under maize cultivation is expanding globally. A two degree Celsius increase in temperature reduces the maize yields by 13 per cent. Moreover rising carbon dioxide emissions are set to make world’s staple food crops less nutritious. The research published in the journal Nature, reveals a major advance in understanding how carbon dioxide levels affect food nutrition. Change in climatic conditions led to heat-resistant and stress-tolerant varieties of maize through advanced genomic approaches. The increasing gap between increase in yield and consumption is widening the demand-supply gap.
While growth of maize yield is just 28 per cent, the growth of its consumption is 70 per cent. The gap is triggering a great demand for maize globally. In China with 32 million hectare of maize cultivation, the maize production and consumption has crossed that of rice. In India 80 per cent of the crop is used for feed and 20 per cent is for consumption but in Africa it is the other way around. The production of maize needs to be doubled by 2050 to meet the growing global demand.
GDP to cross 8 per cent
The Economic Survey reveals that Indian economy is likely to grow in the range of 7.5-8 during 2015-16 overcoming the sub-5.5 per cent GDP growth of past two years, even as poor monsoon and disturbed external environment remain a cause for concern. The livestock sector plays an important role in rural livelihood, employment and income generation. Major livestock products like milk and milk products, meat and eggs contribute around one-sixth of the calories and one-third of the proteins in the per capita food supplies of the world; per capita consumption of livestock products is four to five times higher in developed countries than in developing countries. India’s 530 million livestock forms 12% of the world livestock population. Per capita milk availability is 281 gm per day which is above ICMR recommendations. Poultry meat and egg production are moving at a faster rate. Per capita egg consumption is 53 eggs per annum.
Prospects of livestock sector
Increase in cost of production reduces the profit margin. Consequent to globalisation, more emphasis will be on quality of products. Animal husbandry is the second- largest economic activity of rural India. In arid and semi-arid regions, the livestock sector ranks first in earnings to skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled populations.
Animal husbandry is a growth engine and annual growth rate in dairying is 5% and in poultry it is 10% and will alleviate rural poverty and uplift the rural farmer. If the country has to sustain economically, the livestock sector has to be strengthened. The availability of per capita animal protein is 10.8 gm whereas the requirement as per world average is 25 gm. The National Sample Survey reports that 70-75% of food budget is for milk and milk products. The need of the hour is increase in production, productivity and improvement in the marketing channel. In the case of failure in agriculture, the livestock sector forms the source of income and gives insurance to any intervals of agriculture failure.
With regard to production and consumption of milk, it is a golden era in the dairy sector. The organised sector grows more than 10% per annum. Milk production is increasing in Asia and India and increasing prices are favourable to developing countries. International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN), Germany, reported that India has lowest cost of milk production when compared to developed countries.
In India, dairying is predominantly unorganised and the sector is dependent on rural households for supplies; over 70 million of 147 million households in India depend on dairy for their livelihood. They have been largely left to their devices and they continue to milk animals that produce around 3 litre a day. Also, the Indian dairy sector is highly fragmented, with organised players having only about 18% of the market, which contributes to the disarray at the farmer's end. This can be increased with better nutrition and farm management.
Though India ranks marginally higher than many of the South Asian neighbours in the 2014 UNDP Human Development Reports, the country has fallen behind most of its immediate neighbours on key health and quality of life indicators. Moreover India has worst gender inequality in the region sharing 127th position with Pakistan. Among SAARC countries Indians are least satisfied with standard of living (47 per cent).
Productivity and quality
According to recent reports 70% of Indian cows and 60% buffaloes have very low productivity. Average milk yield from local cows is about 3 to 3.5 litre, of buffalo 3.96 to 5.39 litre and of cross-bred cow between 5.82 and 7.80 litre per day which is significantly lower than the productivity in developed countries.
According to the Economic Survey, productivity in agriculture sector is far below global standards; India has around 300 million numbers of cows and buffaloes in dairy production and is the global leader in milk production: about 135 million tonne a year. The efficiency of the Indian dairying sector is abysmally low. The best run farms in the world produce 1.6 kg of milk for every kg of feed, in India it's less than a kg.
Scientific breeding, feeding and management practices along with quality inputs and extension support services are required for achieving better productivity. There exists a wide deficit in the supply of feeds and fodders countrywide. Recent estimates reveal that green fodder is deficit by 23% while dry fodder and concentrates are in deficit by 31% and 47%, respectively in the country.
Awareness programmes on quality of feed and fodder acquires great significance. Strategic programmes are required for reaching out among smallholder population for facilitating technology transfer and extension support. Food Safety and Standards Act, 2006, play a key role in maintaining quality of livestock products. Producers have to be linked with processing and exporting agencies so that quality can be ensured right from production to marketing.
Demand-supply mismatch
Among various livestock products, major surplus in 2020 is reported to emerge in the case of milk and eggs as production growth will be significantly higher than consumption growth for these two specific commodities produced in India. While buffalo meat is the major item of Indian meat export, accounting for 59%, share of Indian meat in the world market is less than two per cent. Linking quality production of livestock products with lucrative incentives and popularisation and development of traditional products technology can facilitate quantum jump in this industry.
Since meat sector provides livelihood to 40 million people, most meats sold in the domestic market needs proper sanitary inspection by the veterinarians. This sector need total restructuring in tune with Food Safety and Standards Act, 2006, to provide quality meat and meat products to the consumers. Divisibility, value addition and export of meat and meat products need to be strengthened for generating more employment as well as trade benefits. With improved domestic production and marketing efficiency, better access to expanding global market, India has the potential to become more competitive in the export of milk and milk products. Indigenous milk products have great potential which are becoming more popular with the ethnic population spread all over the world. The Indian dairy industry needs appropriate production, marketing, trade policy and its periodic revival to keep the pace with the rest of the world and remain competitive to grab opportunities through international trade.
References
Central Statistical Organization (2003), National Accounts Statistics, Departments of Statistics, Ministry of Planning, Government of India, New Delhi
Dastagiri, M.B. (2003), 'Is India Self-Sufficient in Livestock Food Products?', Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 58, No. 4, Oct.-Dec., pp. 729-740.
FAO (2005), 'The Globalizing Livestock Sector: Impact of Changing Markets', 19th Session of the Committee on Agriculture, 13-16 April, 2005, Rome.
Gulati, A. and Narayanan, S. (2003), 'The Subsidy Syndrome in Indian Agriculture', Oxford University Press, New Delhi, India
Gupta, Shiv Kumar (2001), 'How the Financial Intervention can Reduce the Impact of WTO on Indian Dairy', Financing Agriculture, April-June.
Jain, M.M. (1979), 'Dairy Development Through Co-operatives: A Study of Rajasthan', Indian Dairyman, Vol. 31.
Jha, Brajesh (2004), 'Implications of Trade Liberalization for the Livestock Sector', Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 59, No. 3, July-Sept., pp. 566-577.
Raju, K.V. (2004), 'Changing Environment and Dairy Cooperatives in India', in 'Cooperatives: Issues and Trends in Developing Countries', Ray Trewin (ed.), Report of a Workshop, held in Perth, 24-25 March 2003, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, Canberra.
Sarma, J.S. and Patric Yeung (1985), 'Livestock Products in the Third World: Past Trends and Projections to 1990 and 2000', IFPRI Research Report, 49.
Sharma, Devinder (2003), 'WTO and Agriculture: The Great Trade Robbery', http://www.indiatogether. org/2003/sep/dsh-robbery.htm, orhttp://www. counter currents. org/en-Sharma20903. htm
Sharma, Vijay Paul (2004), 'Livestock Economy of India: Current Status, Emerging Issues and Long-Term Prospects', Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 59, No. 3, July-Sept., pp. 512-554.
Sharma, Vijay Paul and Pritee Sharma (2002), "Trade Liberalization and Indian Dairy Industry", Oxford & IBH Publishing Co. Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi
World Bank (1999), 'India Livestock Sector Review: Enhancing Growth and Development, Rural Development Sector Unit, South Asia Region', Allied Publishers Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi
