Agronomists taking part in a crop tour of the main grain-producing regions in Brazil expect their forecasts for soybean output this season to decline further as a result of poor weather in states such as Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná.
Analysts at Agroconsult, an independent consultancy that organized Brazil’s largest crop tour, visited farms in those states last week and will check fields in other areas this week.
“The northern and western parts of Paraná and the southern part of Mato Grosso do Sul were heavily impacted by the dry spell and high temperatures,” André Debastiani, a partner at Agroconsult, told Reuters.
He said some places in those impacted areas were reporting yields as low as 30 60-kg bags per hectare, less than half of what was seen in the previous season.
Last week, Paraná’s government reduced its forecast for the soybean crop by 12 percent to 16.8 million tonnes. The state is traditionally the second largest soy producer in the country, after Mato Grosso.
Debastiani said field conditions differ significantly from area to area, which will make it more difficult for analysts to have an accurate view of the overall situation.
Agroconsult’s latest forecast for Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean crop indicated an output of 117.6 million tonnes, but the agronomist sees that coming further down.
“There is a clear downward bias. We know that other states such as Bahia and Maranhão are also dry, and weather remains excessively warm in Mato Grosso do Sul … cutting 1 or 2 million tonnes more is feasible,” he said.
Brazil produced a record crop of 119.3 million tonnes last season.
