General Comments: Futures closed lower and retreated back into the recent trading range. It looks like the market now is dealing with a failed breakout attempt higher. The fundamental situation still appears negative. Most traders still note that big supplies appear to be available to the market. Most buyers are not worried about prices and are not chasing rally attempts. Most statistical organizations continue to look for a big surplus production for the year.
Production has been strong in Brazil so far this year, and reports say that the new crop production looks to be strong as well. Exports from Brazil continue to be very strong after the delayed start to the program. Big Brazil production remains negative to prices, and traders know that Indian and Thai production is in the market, too. The Thai crushing season is underway with good production expected, but the crushing pace remains slow. Traders wonder if and when India will cut offers to the market due to the lower prices and perhaps less than expected production due to some dry weather at the beginning of the growing season.
Overnight News: Scattered and light showers are expected in Brazil through this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1825, 1805, and 1770 March, and resistance is at 1895, 1905, and 1920 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 480.00, 475.00, and 470.00 March, and resistance is at 497.00, 501.00, and 503.00 March.
COTTON
General Comments: Futures were higher and got much of the losses of the last couple of days back as an important support area on the charts held. Trends remain up as traders contemplate less planted area next year and strong export sales. Ideas are that demand can remain strong. Export sales have been strong for the last month to six weeks, and strong sales are expected to continue after another failed Chinese government auction held over the weekend.
The current low prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Current weather featured some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was mostly dry. Delta and Southeast areas will turn dry starting today. Ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry conditions, although showers and storms are expected today in the Southeast. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average above normal. The USDA spot price is now 76.99 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.121 million bales, from 0.115 million yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9100 March. Support is at 81.40, 80.20, and 79.90 March, with resistance of 84.00, 85.25, and 87.00 March.
