The Northern Hemisphere stocks for apples at the end of February 2014 were 261 492 640 tons and the stocks for pears, 47 096 160 tons. This is respectively 18% and 66% higher than in February 2013, bearing in mind that last year had record low stocks, these stocks are thus higher, but still in context with previous years- thus this is not record estimates. A much more challenging season for the South African top fruit is expected due to competition from the increased NH stocks as well as sales pace during the early part of the season. Prices will likely be under some pressure.
As for other export markets, Du Preeze explains that South Africa will probably continue its growth trend in Africa, the Middle and Far East as has been the case the last 5-7 years. "These markets compete very well with traditional markets like the EU and are also willing to pay for top quality fruit. The trend to traditional markets is also a growth one, but at a much lower rate. And of course different markets require different specifications of fruit. South Africa also has a relatively strong local market, specifically for apples."
According to industry body Hortgro, the estimated volumes of apples is down 8.6% (a reduction of 2,976,882 cartons) on last year while pears are down 8.4% (1,322,418 cartons).
Pears
Some varieties seem to have suffered a lot more than others this season, the varieties with the biggest loss is Doyenne Du Comice which is down 34%, closely followed by the Beurre Hardy with 32% less. The Beurre Bosc and Vermont Beauty were down 20%.
Du Preeze explained this because these are old cultivars which are systematically being grubbed and replaced by other cultivars which is one of the reasons for the big reductions in exports estimates, "The other reason is the rain and hail damage. This damage was mostly concentrated in the Ceres-area, where most of the cultivars mentioned are planted, this also contributed to the drop in export estimates for 2014.
The varieties with the least decreases in volume are, among others, William's Bon Chretien, Abate Fetel with 2 and 3% less respectively.
Apples
The reductions per variety with apples it a bit more uniform apart from the TopRed/Starking which is estimated to be 14% less (324,102 cartons) most other varieties will be reduced by around 8 or 9%. TopRed is an old cultivar which is systematically being replaced by other cultivars.
