Production of avocados from California, which accounts for almost all of the domestic production of avocados in the United States, has declined over the last several years. But as demand for the product has continued to grow in the U.S., Mexican imports have made up for falling domestic volumes.
“Even though California has had less fruit these last few years, Mexico has made up for that shortfall in volume,” said Phil Henry of Henry Avocado. “So, from a consumer standpoint, there have been plenty of avocados.” California production this season will likely be less than the roughly 300 million pounds that were harvested last season. That's in line with a trend that has seen state production come down over the last several years.
Acreage decline due to drought
“Anything more than 350 million pounds close to a normal crop,” said Henry. “So we have a smaller crop this season, and it's unlikely we'll see a 500 million crop again, like we saw in previous seasons, because there's less acreage.” He points to the water shortage in California as a reason for shrinking acreage across the state. Not all growers have access to wells, and even those that do are sometimes finding their wells aren't providing as much water as in the past. For those who don't have wells and have to buy water, water prices have been high.
In contrast to declining volumes, demand has increased at a good clip. To meet that demand, imports from Mexico and Peru have increased over the years. The dynamics between California production and imports have made for a steady market. On July 7, prices for a carton of Hass 32s from Mexico were between $36.25 and $38.25 at Texas crossings. At Southern California ports of entry, prices for a carton of Hass 32s from Peru were between $27.00 and $29.00.
“Imports from Mexico have significantly increased from last season,” said Henry. “So that's made up for the smaller California crop.”
